强者恒强：COVID-19封锁严格程度与奥运奖牌结果的离散性
The Best Are Always the Best: COVID-19 Lockdown Stringency and the Dispersion of Olympic Medal Outcomes
AI总结：
该研究发现COVID-19封锁严格程度不影响奥运奖牌平均表现，但使非传统体育强国的奖牌变化离散度提升3至6倍，加剧了小代表队的结果不确定性。
AI中文摘要：
本研究以牛津严格指数（Oxford Stringency Index）为依据，针对里约2016与东京2020两届奥运会中获得过奖牌的99个国家，探究COVID-19封锁严格程度是否改变了各国奥运表现。与Liu等人2024年的研究一致，平均表现未受影响：在所有普通最小二乘法（OLS）和方差分析（ANOVA）设定中，封锁严格程度均不显著。但分布并非如此：在84个非传统体育强国中，高严格程度国家的奖牌变化离散度是低严格程度国家的3至6倍；而在体育强国中无此差异，且该效应集中于男子项目。这一共同冲击维持了竞争层级，同时大幅提升了规模较小奥运代表队的结果不确定性。
英文摘要：
We ask whether COVID-19 lockdown stringency altered national Olympic performance between Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, using the Oxford Stringency Index and the 99 countries that won a medal in either edition. As in \citet{liu2024}, mean performance is unaffected: stringency is insignificant in every OLS and ANOVA specification. The distribution is not. Among the 84 non-traditionally dominant nations, medal changes are three to six times more dispersed in high-stringency countries; the difference is absent among dominant nations and concentrated in men's events. A common shock left the competitive hierarchy intact while sharply raising outcome uncertainty for smaller Olympic teams.
