AI 中文总结
本研究提出一种结合作物选择结构模型与机器学习预测的方法，测量美国1889-1929年的历史风险偏好，发现风险厌恶程度影响农户的杠杆使用、债券购买、风险分担参与及农业机械化进程。
AI 中文摘要
我们设计了一种测量远古时期主体风险偏好的方法，该方法将作物选择作为投资组合配置的结构模型与预期作物产量的机器学习预测相结合，使用历史农艺和气候数据。我们估算了1889至1929年美国县级和堪萨斯州农户级的风险偏好：更厌恶风险的农户杠杆率更低，购买一战新型自由债券的可能性更小，更倾向于参与本地风险分担机构；我们还发现，更高的风险厌恶程度预示着1920年代拖拉机采用和农业机械化进程更缓慢。
英文摘要
We design a method for measuring the risk preferences of agents in the deep past. The method combines a structural model of crop choice as a portfolio allocation with machine-learning prediction of expected crop returns, using historic agronomic and climate data. We estimate county-level risk preferences for the United States and farmer-level preferences in Kansas from 1889 to 1929. More risk averse farmers leveraged less, were less likely to purchase novel WWI Liberty Bonds, and were more likely to participate in local risk-sharing institutions. We show that higher risk aversion predicts slower tractor adoption and farm mechanization during the 1920s.
