已披露的人力资本中断与公司特定风险
Disclosed Human-Capital Disruption and Firm-Specific Risk
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究构建财报电话会议中已披露人力资本中断的衡量指标，发现其与公司特定风险显著相关，可预测特质波动率、下行偏差等变化及高管离职，揭示了劳动力短缺外的组织投入干扰信息。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
人力资本是组织的核心投入要素，但标准财务数据几乎未揭示劳动力可用性、成本、技能及连续性方面的公司特定中断情况。作者运用自行定义的编码标准和上下文语言模型，从财报电话会议中构建了已披露人力资本中断的衡量指标。在公司内部，该年度衡量指标每增加一个标准差，与特质波动率上升0.55个百分点、下行偏差上升0.58个百分点、最差月度回报率下降0.46个百分点相关，而与市场贝塔无对应关系。该结果在7种更宽泛和更狭窄的分类规则下均稳定，且在剔除明确的劳动力短缺段落、控制近期发布的劳动力短缺衡量指标及整个 transcript 范围内的负面和不确定语言后依然成立。在电话会议层面，在控制电话会议前的风险后，人力资本中断可预测未来42个交易日内特质波动率上升约0.50%；电话会议前风险已升高，且该指标可预测公司特定风险状态在未来42个交易日内的延续。在剔除信号传递和继任段落之后，该指标还可预测后续高管名单变动及现任CEO的实际离职。因此，财报电话会议揭示了关键组织投入的干扰，其范围超出劳动力短缺，且对公司结果的分布具有信息价值。
英文摘要
Human capital is a central organizational input, but standard financial data reveal little about firm-specific disruptions to workforce availability, cost, skills, and continuity. I construct a measure of disclosed human-capital disruption from earnings calls using author-defined coding criteria and a contextual language model. Within firms, a one-standard-deviation increase in the annual measure is associated with 0.55 percentage points higher idiosyncratic volatility, 0.58 percentage points higher downside deviation, and a 0.46 percentage point lower worst monthly return, with no corresponding relation to market beta. The results are stable across seven broader and narrower classification rules and remain after removing explicit labor-shortage passages and controlling for a recently published labor-shortage measure and transcript-wide negative and uncertain language. At the call level, human-capital disruption predicts approximately 0.50% higher idiosyncratic volatility over the following 42 trading days after conditioning on pre-call risk. Risk is elevated before the call as well, and the score predicts the continuation of that firm-specific risk state over the following 42 trading days. After telegraphing and succession passages are removed, the measure also predicts subsequent named-executive roster exits and the incumbent CEO's effective departure from office. Earnings calls therefore reveal disturbances to a key organizational input that are broader than labor shortages and informative about the distribution of firm outcomes.
