受众捕获、选择性接触、情感同化还是意识形态分类？低媒体-政党平行性下的气候政治极化
Audience capture, selective exposure, affective assimilation or ideological sorting? Polarisation of climate politics under low media-party parallelism
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究以芬兰Twitter用户2015-2023年的新闻互动数据，探究低媒体-政党平行性下气候政治极化的四种机制，发现受众捕获、部分选择性接触与中等程度情感同化的作用，为气候政治僵局的理解提供理论补充。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
研究常将多数制民主国家的气候政治极化归因于保守派与自由派媒体对气候变化的差异化处理。那么，在主流媒体未系统与政党立场对齐的体制中，这种极化如何发生？本研究聚焦2015至2023年间芬兰Twitter上不同意识形态阵营用户发布及评论新闻文章的行为，探讨四种机制：受众捕获（媒体迎合日益分化的受众，通过受众参与与编辑激励间的反馈强化分歧）、选择性接触（用户发布来自相同媒体的意识形态一致的文章）、情感同化（用户传播具有意识形态一致效价的相同内容）、意识形态分类（身份驱动的对齐结构跨议题的新闻发布行为）。贝叶斯回归模型显示，媒体选择的分歧不断增大，倾向保守派的用户发布更多小报内容，符合受众捕获机制；选择性接触机制获部分支持，同一媒体内的文章发布日益分化；效价分歧随时间仅小幅增大，为情感同化机制提供中等支持；尽管随时间趋同，但特定议题社群与意识形态阵营的对齐度较弱。本研究完善了多数制民主国家之外的媒体效应理论，助力理解当前气候政治的僵局。
英文摘要
Studies often attribute the polarisation of climate politics in majoritarian democracies to differing treatment of climate change by conservative and liberal media. How then does such polarisation occur in a system, where mainstream media do not systematically align with party positions? Focusing on how users in different ideological blocs posted and commented on news articles on Finnish Twitter between 2015 and 2023, we address four mechanisms: audience capture, where outlets adapt to increasingly differentiated audiences, reinforcing their divergence through feedback between audience engagement and editorial incentives; selective exposure, where users post ideologically congruent articles from the same outlets; affective assimilation, where users communicate identical content with ideology-consistent valence; and ideological sorting, where identity-driven alignment structures news-posting behaviour across multiple issues. Bayesian regression models indicate increasing divergence in outlet choice, with conservative-leaning users posting more tabloid content, in line with audience capture, and partial support for selective exposure, as within-outlet article posting becomes increasingly differentiated. Valence divergence increases only slightly over time, providing moderate support for affective assimilation, while issue-specific communities show weak alignment with blocs despite convergence over time. Our work refines theories of media effects beyond majoritarian democracies and contributes to understanding the current impasse in climate politics.
