发表机构
Polytechnic University of Milan; School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University; Key Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation Technology and System, Ministry of Education; Department of Human Geography, Lund University（米兰理工大学; 北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院; 教育部智能交通技术与系统重点实验室; 隆德大学人文地理系）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究以2026年美伊石油冲击为自然实验，运用分层面板回归断点设计，发现不同社区出行适应能力存在不平等，燃油价格冲击可作为城市压力测试揭示此类隐藏差异。
AI 中文摘要
城市脱碳往往会提高出行成本，但在正常情况下，哪些社区能够适应这一情况却大多不为人知。我们将2026年美伊石油冲击作为自然实验，对中国和美国12.2万个社区的1.7万亿次兴趣点访问数据应用分层面板回归断点设计。近四分之三的社区出行范围出现下降，但响应方式随冲击前的城市条件呈现系统性差异。对能源密集型出行的暴露程度是两国出行异质性的最大解释因素，而适应能力和活动构成进一步影响出行重组方式。较长的基准出行距离加剧了出行收缩，而较高的汽车依赖度则限制了出行调整。关键的是，相似的出行结果源于不同的过程：部分社区通过承担更高成本维持出行，而另一些社区则在结构上陷入无法重组的出行状态。因此，燃油价格冲击可作为城市压力测试，揭示原本隐藏的出行适应不平等现象。
英文摘要
What a city makes reachable depends less on what it contains than on who can still afford to move when travel costs rise. We leverage the 2026 US-Iran oil shock as a natural experiment, applying a hierarchical panel regression discontinuity design to 1.7 trillion point-of-interest visits across 122,000 neighbourhoods in China and the United States. Mobility range declined in nearly three-quarters of neighbourhoods, but responses varied systematically with pre-shock urban conditions. Exposure to energy-intensive travel explained the largest share of modelled heterogeneity in both countries, while adaptive capacity and activity composition further shaped how travel was reorganized. Longer baseline travel intensified contraction, whereas greater car dependence constrained adjustment. Crucially, similar mobility outcomes arose from different processes: some neighbourhoods maintained travel by absorbing higher costs, whereas others appeared structurally locked into travel they could not reorganize. Fuel-price shocks, therefore, act as urban stress tests, revealing which neighbourhoods a city keeps connected.
