AI 中文总结
本研究提出Level II-A框架，以合成脑电图数据为案例，通过端点后随机化测试适配过去的解释的极限，将“过去解释”转化为可检验的量级限定主张。
AI 中文摘要
预测模型即使信息集不足也能拟合数据，仅拟合度无法证明信息集充分性。本观点提出Level II-A，一种新的基于设计的推理框架以检验该区别，以伴随负变异的预期脑电图作为案例说明。在对指令事件的延迟被随机化前，已确定事件前端点。由此，后续分配的延迟成为负对照探针，用于检验适配过去的信息是否足以支撑已确定的结果。在适配过去的分解下，仅使用确定前信息的解释无法按该延迟系统排序端点。防泄漏预处理、冻结的标签盲比较器及保留样本限定将排除性延伸至验证性残差。合格的实质性负排序支持条件不充分性，但无法识别机制；足够敏感的零结果支持由流程的假充分性率校准的有界肯定结论。非补偿规则将这些与诊断失败、选择受限、反向及不确定结果区分。未分析人类脑电图数据。在合成基准中，基于网格的假充分性边界在分配隔离时为15 μV·s⁻¹，在序列e值路径的两个方向均为30 μV·s⁻¹。该设计适用于端点确定先于外生标签的场景，仅在声明的替代假设预测其排序时探测充分性，将“过去解释了它”从可行解释假设转变为量级限定的可检验主张。
英文摘要
A predictive model can fit its data even when its information set is insufficient; fit alone cannot establish sufficiency. This Perspective introduces Level II-A, a new design-based inference framework to test this distinction, illustrated in anticipatory EEG using contingent negative variation. A pre-event endpoint is committed before the delay to the imperative event is randomised. That later-assigned delay thereby becomes a negative-control probe of whether past-adapted information was sufficient for an already committed result. Under the past-adapted factorisation, accounts using only pre-commitment information cannot systematically order the endpoint by that delay. Leakage-safe preprocessing, a frozen label-blind comparator and retained-sample qualifications carry the exclusion to the confirmatory residual. A qualified material negative ordering supports conditional insufficiency without identifying a mechanism; an adequately sensitive null supports a bounded affirmative conclusion calibrated by the pipeline's false-adequacy rate. A non-compensatory rule separates these from diagnostic failure, selection-limited, opposite-direction and inconclusive outcomes. No human EEG data are analysed. In the synthetic benchmark, grid-based false-adequacy boundaries are $15\,μ\mathrm{V\,s^{-1}}$ for assignment isolation and $30\,μ\mathrm{V\,s^{-1}}$ for the sequential e-value route, in both directions. The design transfers wherever endpoint commitment precedes an exogenous label, probing sufficiency only where a declared alternative predicts ordering by it. It turns "the past explains it" from a working explanatory assumption into a magnitude-qualified, testable claim.
CommentsPerspective article. 90 pages, 6 figures, 15 tables; includes Supplementary Information. No human EEG data are analysed. Synthetic benchmark and reproducible software are available at https://github.com/geosop/LEVEL-IIA and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21887583
