组织技术阶梯：远程工作与生成式人工智能的采用
Organizational Technology Ladders: Remote Work and Generative AI Adoption
AI总结：
本研究提出组织技术阶梯理论，发现新冠疫情期间远程招聘比例提升会显著促进企业后续生成式人工智能的采用，且要求返岗的企业响应幅度更大，揭示了技术采用的组织机制。
AI中文摘要：
本研究提出，企业会沿着一条“组织技术阶梯”发展：采用一项技术会改变招聘和工作流程，并积累技能与组织资本，进而改变后续技术采用的成本。本文探究了企业在新冠疫情期间采用远程工作技术如何影响后续生成式人工智能（Generative AI）的采用情况。利用美国职位发布数据，以及基于劳动力市场压力预测差异来提供远程工作的工具变量策略，研究估计，2021-2022年远程招聘比例每提高10个百分点，企业层面2023-2024年提及生成式人工智能的职位发布比例会提高0.4个百分点，企业内部各职业层面的该比例则会提高0.7个百分点。本文提供了与技术阶梯渠道一致的机制证据：采用远程工作会将招聘转向技术和管理能力，而这些能力预示着能更快将生成式人工智能的接触转化为实际采用。那些要求员工返回办公室（被解读为表明其远程工作生产力较低）的企业，其生成式人工智能采用对远程工作的响应幅度明显更大，这与组织摩擦渠道的结论一致。
英文摘要：
This study proposes that firms move along an "organizational technology ladder": adopting one technology transforms hiring and work processes and builds skills and organizational capital that change the cost of adopting subsequent technologies. I study how firms' adoption of remote work technology during the COVID-19 period shaped later uptake of generative AI. Using U.S. job-posting data and an instrumental-variables strategy based on predicted differences in labor-market pressure to offer remote work, I estimate that a 10 percentage point increase in remote hiring in 2021-2022 increases the share of job postings mentioning generative AI in 2023-2024 by 0.4 percentage points across firms and 0.7 percentage points across occupations within firms. I provide evidence on mechanisms consistent with a technology-ladder channel: remote work adoption shifts hiring toward technical and managerial capabilities that predict faster conversion of generative AI exposure into adoption. Firms with return-to-office mandates---interpreted as revealing low remote productivity---exhibit a substantially larger response of generative AI adoption to remote work, consistent with an organizational frictions channel.
