AI 中文总结
针对新建燃煤发电的碳约束与空间因素，本研究提出空间实物期权框架，结合中国194027个技术可行站点数据，明确煤电投资窗口、CCUS经济性差异及政策工具效果，为相关投资提供决策支持。
AI 中文摘要
部分经济体可能仍需要新建燃煤发电装机以保障能源安全，但日益收紧的碳约束正逐渐威胁其长期投资可行性。因此，设计具备碳捕获、利用与封存（CCUS）适配条件的新电厂至关重要，然而现有投资研究大多忽略了影响CCUS投资可行性的空间因素。本研究提出一种空间实物期权（Spatial Real Options, SRO）框架，该框架将国家级选址筛选与站点级实物期权估值相结合。研究将中国全国范围内技术可行的站点清单（共194027个）与实物期权模型关联，该模型纳入了时间不确定性、各省特定条件、CO₂运输距离以及各类政策工具。结果显示，常规煤电的全国可投资窗口将在21世纪40年代初至中期关闭。CCUS集成显著改变了项目经济性，但不同封存选项与运输距离下的结果差异显著：油藏封存在短距离下仍具备经济吸引力，而咸水层封存则需要运营激励才能具备竞争力。发电时长补偿的效果显著优于投资成本补贴，表明运营成本而非前期资本是关键约束。生成的时空图为识别渐进式脱碳背景下，适配CCUS的煤电投资在何地、何时最具吸引力提供了实用的决策支持工具。
英文摘要
New coal-fired capacity may still be needed in some economies to support energy security, yet tightening carbon constraints increasingly threaten its long-term investment viability. Designing new plants to be Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)-ready is therefore critical, but existing investment studies largely neglect the spatial factors that shape CCUS investment viability. In this study, we propose a Spatial Real Options (SRO) framework that couples national-scale siting screening with site-level real-options valuation. A national inventory of technically feasible sites across China (n = 194,027) is linked to a real-options model that incorporates temporal uncertainty together with province-specific conditions, CO2 transport distance, and alternative policy instruments. Results show that the nationwide investable window for conventional coal closes by the early-to-mid 2040s. CCUS integration materially reshapes project economics, but outcomes differ substantially across storage options and transport distances: oil-reservoir storage remains economically attractive at short distances, whereas saline-aquifer storage requires operational incentives to become competitive. Generation-hour compensation substantially outperforms investment-cost subsidies, indicating that operating costs, rather than upfront capital, constitute the binding constraint. The resulting spatiotemporal maps provide a practical decision-support tool for identifying where and when CCUS-ready coal investments are most attractive under progressive decarbonization.
Comments37 pages, 12 figures
