AI 中文总结
本研究通过分析英超联赛公开伤病报告数据，明确其可测试受限相对信号与测量假象，但无法测量临床发病率等，且发现同类型伤病新近性、暴露时长、阵容选择会影响报告结果。
AI 中文摘要
目的：确定公开足球伤病报告在经过结果分类、风险时间误差和出场选择检查后保留了哪些信号。设计：回顾性观察公共数据队列。方法：我们分析了2017-18赛季至2025年4月7日期间的1063名球员和80598条来自Transfermarkt的英超联赛比赛记录。我们将代理发病率与临床监测基准进行比较，并核查了先前伤病类型、暴露分母和阵容选择。结果：该代理记录了1693起事件（每1000比赛小时17.5起，95%置信区间16.7-18.4），为临床监测基准的49%-74%。先前肌肉/肌腱报告频率高的球员，其后续肌肉/肌腱报告发病率高于先前关节/韧带或骨骼/骨折频率高的球员，直接二元比率为2.35（1.37-4.01）。匹配的特定类型新近性解释了明显的计数阈值：正式的高频肌肉/肌腱步骤从1.59（1.23-2.06）降至1.15（0.91-1.46）。事件记录平均时长为51.6分钟，而非71.3分钟；将暴露时间固定为90分钟可使泊松离散度从2.16降至0.98。早期样条峰值不稳定，与替补和复出记录重合。结论：公开报告低估了绝对发病率，但可测试受限的相对信号和测量假象。最具可转移性的发现是，同类型新近性解释了明显的计数阈值，事件缩短的暴露时间夸大了每分钟发病率，且选择影响拟合的暴露-反应曲线。这些数据无法测量临床发病率或因果拥堵效应。
英文摘要
Football injury incidence is conventionally reported per 1000 hours of exposure, dividing counts by recorded playing time. Where recorded minutes track the workload under study, that division removes part of the association it should scale. We aimed to quantify the two defects contaminating a recorded-minute denominator, outcome truncation and exposure-dependent playing time, and to measure the denominator gradient across leagues and sexes. Retrospective observational cohort study of 88,573 appearances by 1208 male English Premier League players, 2017-2025, with replication from appearance records alone in 628,487 men's and 29,799 women's appearances across 15 European leagues. Changing only the offset moved the seven-day estimate from a rate ratio of 1.27 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.44) to 1.09 (0.95 to 1.25), an attenuation of 0.151 (0.140 to 0.163) that divided away 14.0% of the rate ratio; the outcome truncated recorded minutes but explained none of it (-0.095%, resampled interval -0.41 to 0.20). Independent sources confirmed attribution in 24 of 27 resolved records (88.9%, 71.9 to 96.1). The gradient exceeded the negligible threshold of 0.05 in all 15 leagues: 0.431 to 0.655 in men's competitions, 0.444 to 0.647 in women's. Restricting to starters returned it below that threshold in eight of eight men's leagues but five of seven women's, the bound reaching 0.058 in Sweden. Recorded minutes are not a neutral denominator, and the gradient should be reported before any per-minute rate. These are measurements from public records, not a tested hypothesis, and the remedy is league-specific: run the check locally.
Comments27 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. Supplementary material included as an ancillary file. Observational analysis; not peer reviewed
