AI 中文总结
本研究评估阻塞亏缺模型对风电场布局鲁棒性的影响，发现纳入阻塞会小幅降低AEP但显著增加不确定性与计算耗时，指出需谨慎调谐模型以平衡准确性与确定性。
AI 中文摘要
风电场布局优化中，关于模型选择和全局阻塞影响的不确定性始终存在。本文通过扩展多目标方法来评估这些相互作用，该方法从模型集成中最大化年均发电量（AEP），同时最小化其方差。通过将自相似阻塞模型（Self Similar blockage model）纳入包含5种尾流模型的集成中，我们评估阻塞物理效应对布局鲁棒性的影响。线性混合效应模型的结果表明，纳入阻塞会导致平均AEP出现0.0624 GWh的非显著降低（p值=0.323）；相反，它会导致不确定性出现高度统计显著的增加，模型分歧上升0.177 GWh（p值<0.001）。此外，计算运行时间增加了近9倍。这些发现凸显了准确性与确定性之间的悖论，即若不重新校准，理论上必要的物理效应会损害模型共识。最终，本研究表明，简单的阻塞耦合可作为模型不兼容性的诊断依据，强调风电场设计需进行谨慎的模型调谐。
英文摘要
Uncertainty in wind farm layout optimization regarding model choice and the impact of global blockage always exists. This paper evaluates these interactions by extending a multi-objective approach that maximizes mean Annual Energy Production (AEP) from a model ensemble while minimizing their variance. By incorporating the Self Similar blockage model into an ensemble of five wake models, we assess the impact of blockage physics on layout robustness. Results from a linear mixed-effects model indicate that including blockage leads to a non-significant average AEP reduction of 0.0624 GWh ($p$-value = 0.323). Conversely, it caused a highly statistically significant increase in uncertainty, with model disagreement rising by 0.177 GWh ($p$-value < 0.001). Additionally, computational runtime increased nearly nine times. These findings highlight an accuracy vs. certainty paradox, where theoretically necessary physics can compromise model consensus if implemented without re-calibration. Ultimately, this work suggests that simple blockage couplings act as a diagnostic for model incompatibility, emphasizing the necessity of careful model tuning for wind farm design.
CommentsThis is an author-formatted, editorially revised version of the paper published in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 3224, Wind farms and wakes (2026), https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/3224/3/032072. The results and conclusions are unchanged. Changes include LaTeX reformatting and minor editorial/structural revisions. Please consider citing this refined preprint
Journal refJ. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 3224 032072 (2026)
DOI：10.1088/1742-6596/3224/3/032072
