年调制的太平洋副热带高压调控ENSO循环：从地球自转到海气动力学的层级框架
Annually Modulated Pacific Subtropical Highs Pace the ENSO Cycle: A Hierarchical Framework from Earth Rotation to Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究揭示年调制的太平洋副热带高压通过地球自转的次年振荡调控ENSO循环，其指数可提前14-17个月确定ENSO事件相位，明确了ENSO触发、维持及终止的层级机制。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是地球主导的年际气候信号，但其事件的触发与终止机制尚未完全明晰。本研究表明，由年循环驱动的东太平洋副热带高压（EPSH）带异常，先于并控制国际日期变更线附近的赤道纬向风，进而决定后续海表温度的演变：北半球脊在北半球春季触发ENSO事件，南半球脊在南半球春季维持事件，二者的同步性决定ENSO的多样性。在这些脊之前存在一个地球自转速率的次年振荡（日长，周期0.5至1年），当该振荡相位与年循环对齐时，会在8月、12月及次年5月三次向极地重新分配大气质量，每次位移使响应进一步向东、向极地扩展，直至显著中心覆盖在脊本身之上。关键的是，该振荡带对ENSO不敏感：其与NINO3的互相关在任何滞后时都从未超过0.05，而经典的ENSO驱动的自转响应则位于2至10年带，相关系数为0.40。因此，该振荡带具有预测性，偏相关分析确定EPSH为传导通道：一旦固定脊的状态，从自转到海洋的直接路径便消失。该指数在事件年之前的7月完成，可提前14至17个月确定即将到来的ENSO事件的相位，但无法确定其振幅。在成熟阶段，事件将哈德利环流与沃克环流重组为Mirror-SIGMA模式，破坏上游链并闭合循环。
英文摘要
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation drives Earth's dominant interannual climate signal, yet what initiates an event and what ends it remain incompletely understood. Here we show that anomalies of the eastern Pacific subtropical high (EPSH) belts, marched through the year by the annual cycle, precede and govern the equatorial zonal wind near the dateline, which sets subsequent sea surface temperature evolution. The Northern Hemisphere ridge triggers events in boreal spring, the Southern Hemisphere ridge sustains them in austral spring, and their synchrony decides ENSO diversity. Preceding the ridges lies a sub-annual oscillation in Earth's rotation rate (length of day, 0.5 to 1 yr band) that redistributes atmospheric mass poleward three times once its phase aligns with the annual cycle, in August, in December, and in the following May, each displacement carrying the response further east and poleward until the significant centers overlie the ridges themselves. Crucially, this band is deaf to ENSO: its cross-correlation with NINO3 never exceeds 0.05 at any lag, whereas the classical ENSO-driven rotation response resides in the 2 to 10 yr band at 0.40. The band therefore reads forward, and partial correlation identifies the EPSH as the conduit: the direct path from rotation to ocean vanishes once the ridges are held fixed. Complete by the July preceding the event year, the index fixes the phase of the coming event fourteen to seventeen months ahead, though not its amplitude. At maturity the event reorganizes the Hadley and Walker circulations into the Mirror-SIGMA pattern, disrupting the upstream chain and closing the cycle.
