AI 中文总结
针对低轨卫星下行调度平均增益标准失效的问题，提出基于过境数据反效果频率设置安全裕量的风险控制方法，可减少调度反效果，提升单次过境性能。
AI 中文摘要
低轨卫星需在有限功率预算内完成图像下行，且过境期间部分时刻信道条件远优于其他时刻。在信道条件好的时刻投入更多功率、放弃无望时刻本应能传输更多图像，但因无法及时测量信道，调度需根据天气统计数据预留安全裕量提前规划。该安全裕量的设置需保证预测在统计上可靠，调度器的评估标准为其平均性能是否优于均匀功率分配。但对于每次过境仅能尝试一次的卫星而言，这两个标准均存在问题：在真实Sentinel-2图像数据上，平均每次过境增益1至2张图像的调度器，仍有四分之一至三分之一的单次过境性能弱于均匀功率分配，且完全知晓天气的“理想调度器”也无更好表现。因此，我们通过对已记录的过境数据测量安全裕量产生反效果的频率来设置其大小，仅保留经证明反效果极少的设置。该过程会拒绝调度我们学习到的编解码器，并为具有更陡峭性能 cliff 的编解码器认证调度资格。
英文摘要
A low-Earth-orbit satellite has only minutes to downlink imagery on a limited power budget, and some moments in a pass carry far better channels than others. Spending more power on the good moments and skipping hopeless ones should deliver more images, but the channel cannot be measured in time, so the schedule is planned in advance from weather statistics using a safety margin. That margin is sized so the forecast is statistically reliable, and the scheduler is judged by whether it beats uniform power on average. Both targets are wrong for a satellite that gets one attempt per pass: on real Sentinel-2 imagery, a scheduler gaining one to two images per pass on average still delivers fewer than uniform power on a quarter to a third of individual passes, and a genie knowing the weather exactly does no better. We instead size the margin by measuring, on recorded passes, how often it would have backfired, keeping only settings that provably backfire rarely. The procedure declines to schedule our learned codec and certifies scheduling for codecs with a sharper cliff.
