AI 中文总结
该研究针对存储竞价问题，分离信号最优值与策略收益，通过理论推导与法国日前交易日实验，发现仅价格信息不足，需明确评估调度排序，构造的仅排名投标可捕获90%收益。
AI 中文摘要
价格预测以欧元/兆瓦时（EUR/MWh）的误差进行评估，而储能获得欧元收益，二者的关联取决于决策规则。我们将信号V(S|C)的最优值与已实施策略实现的收益J(g,S)分离开来。对于具有每日吞吐量上限L和尺度为s的条件次高斯价格规律的价格接受型资产，其相对于气候学的最优增益最多为L s √(2 I(S;Π|C))。这是一个平方根包络，而非针对单个策略的预测。在939个法国日前交易日中，测试的界限至少比参考提升量高出两个数量级。然而，在嵌套高斯模糊族中，尽管信号信息是单调的，插件策略收益却非单调：在残差噪声尺度下，最优高斯收缩规则实现了提升量的-46%，低于气候学。该机制是序数性的。在放松条件下，最优调度取决于区间排序和盈利对测试。构造的仅排名投标捕获了90%的提升量；将原本精确价格向量中最便宜和最贵的条目交换，总收益减少53%。在所设计的扫描范围内，排名一致性的样本内R²为0.99，而信息上限的R²为0.34。气候学已获得完美预见收益的78%。因此，仅信息数量无法评估预测驱动策略的价值；必须明确评估实现的调度和排序。
英文摘要
Price forecasts are evaluated in EUR/MWh of error, while storage earns euros; their link depends on the decision rule. We separate the optimal value of a signal V(S|C) from the revenue J(g,S) achieved by an implemented policy. For a price-taking asset with daily throughput bound L and a conditionally sub-Gaussian price law of scale s, the optimal gain over climatology is at most L s sqrt(2 I(S;Pi|C)). This is a square-root envelope, not a prediction for an individual policy. On 939 French day-ahead days the tested bound sits at least two orders of magnitude above the reference uplift. Along a nested Gaussian garbling family, however, plug-in policy revenue is non-monotone even though signal information is monotone: at the residual-noise scale the best Gaussian-shrinkage rule achieves -46% of the uplift, below climatology. The mechanism is ordinal. On a relaxation, optimal schedules depend on interval ordering and profitable-pair tests. A constructed rank-only bid captures 90% of the uplift; exchanging the cheapest and dearest entries of an otherwise exact price vector cuts total revenue by 53%. Within the designed sweep, rank agreement has in-sample R^2 = 0.99, against 0.34 for the information upper bound. Climatology already earns 78% of perfect-foresight revenue. Information quantity alone therefore does not value a forecast-driven policy; realised schedules and ordering must be evaluated explicitly.
Comments9 pages, 3 figures, 2 appendices with full proofs. Pre-registered protocol; 136 backtests on 939 days of French day-ahead prices
