AI 中文总结
本文评估9种AI数据中心现场供电技术，发现无技术胜电网，氢能成本碳排不达标，电网平价无法实现，当前投资目标有误。
AI 中文摘要
如今，数据中心的选址由互联排队机制而非电价决定，而标准的平准化成本比较回答的是开发者不会面临的问题：它假设了负荷曲线，在模拟推高电网电价的需求时冻结电网价格，且给出的母线成本是设施无法采购的。本文针对9种现场供电技术，以交付电网为基准（其价格由预计数据中心需求内生决定），采用完整站点基准（保留备用费用），结合实测GPU训练负荷、交付燃料价格、生产路径碳排，以及法定45V和48E激励机制开展评估。结果显示：无技术能胜过电网，燃气联合循环的发电成本为47美元/兆瓦时，但完整站点能源成本约114美元/兆瓦时，而电网成本为92美元/兆瓦时；4小时储能的年发电量物理上限约为18%，按边际充电计算时比电网更不清洁；由电网电价电力制得的氢气在成本和碳排上均不达标。投资反转将这些发现转化为资本术语：转换硬件学习毫无价值，因为免费硬件在所有低碳方向上仍高于电网；在现场低于20美元/兆瓦时的电力上部署全球电解槽，可使PEM（质子交换膜）氢气发电成本约为电网的2.2倍（对应3000亿美元投资）和1.9倍（对应1万亿美元投资），氢气发动机则分别为2.7倍和2.3倍，碳减排量约为85%（较电网电力生产高6.8倍）。无论投入多少预算，都无法达到电网平价。现场供电是一种接入和深度产品，当前多数投资目标错误。
英文摘要
Interconnection queues, not electricity prices, now govern where data centers can be built, and the standard levelized-cost comparison answers a question no developer faces: it assumes a load profile, freezes the grid price while modeling the demand that moves it, and quotes busbar costs a facility cannot buy. This paper evaluates nine on-site supply technologies against a delivered grid whose price is endogenous to projected data-center demand, on a complete-site basis that retains standby charges, with measured GPU training load, delivered fuel prices, production-pathway carbon, and statutory 45V and 48E incentive mechanics. Nothing beats the wire: gas combined cycle produces at 47 USD/MWh but costs about 114 USD per megawatt-hour of complete site energy against a 92 USD grid; four-hour storage is physically capped near 18 percent of annual energy and, charged at the margin, dirtier than the grid; hydrogen from grid-priced power fails on cost and carbon together. An investment inversion converts these findings into capital terms: conversion-hardware learning buys nothing, because free hardware still exceeds the grid for every low-carbon arm, while global electrolyser deployment on sited sub-20 USD/MWh power brings PEM hydrogen power to about 2.2 times the grid at 300 billion USD and 1.9 times at 1 trillion USD (2.7 and 2.3 for the hydrogen engine), with a carbon reduction of roughly 85 percent (6.8-fold) against grid-power production. Grid parity is not purchasable at any budget. On-site supply is an access and depth product; most current investment targets the wrong term.
