AI 中文总结
本文区分了两类第三产业化类型，运用投入产出表测度发现多数经济体第三产业化由非家庭需求驱动，生产体系渠道是服务业占比增长的主要来源。
AI 中文摘要
本文旨在测度服务业的崛起最终是由家庭消费支撑，还是由生产网络、投资、出口及政府带来的非家庭需求支撑。作者运用1995-2022年76个经济体的协调投入产出表，将服务业增加值归属至其最终国内最终需求类别，并从水平值和增长率两个维度衡量各服务经济体的家庭导向程度。传统的服务业占比无法揭示第三产业化的类型：其与家庭导向程度呈负相关，且约40%的第三产业化阶段以家庭需求为主导。在1995-2018年服务业占比上升的65个经济体中，77%的经济体家庭导向程度降低；在2个百分点的实质性变化阈值下，该比例为75%。不过，家庭支撑型生产会随收入提升而变得更具服务密集性，因为家庭的总体地位下降更快。单类型基准模型不存在购买者边际，两类型扩展模型为这种反转提供了条件。精确的里昂惕夫核算和夏普利分解将服务业占比增长的中位数73%归因于生产体系渠道，在80%的服务业占比实质性上升的经济体中，生产体系渠道是最大贡献来源；而家庭导向程度的下降则主要归因于总体最终需求结构。服务业占比仅记录服务活动的规模，而非产生该活动的经济转型类型。
英文摘要
I measure whether the rise of services is ultimately supported by household consumption or by non-household demand through production networks, investment, exports, and government. Using harmonized input-output tables for 76 economies over 1995-2022, I attribute service value added to its ultimate domestic final-demand category and measure the household orientation of each service economy in both levels and growth. The conventional service share does not reveal the type: it is negatively correlated with household orientation, and only about four in ten tertiarization episodes are majority-household. Among the 65 economies whose service share rose over 1995-2018, 77 percent became less household-oriented; the share is 75 percent under a two-percentage-point material-change threshold. Yet household-supported production becomes more service-intensive with income because households' aggregate position falls faster. A one-type benchmark has no purchaser margin; a two-type extension gives the condition for this reversal. An exact Leontief accounting and Shapley decomposition allocate a median 73 percent of service-share growth to production-system channels, which are the largest contribution in 80 percent of economies with materially rising shares. The decline in household orientation is instead allocated mainly to aggregate final-demand structure. The service share records how much service activity exists, not which economic transformation produced it.
