扩展金砖国家的技术转移准备度、可解释人工智能与金融创新能力转型：与先进创新经济体的基准比较
Technology Transfer Readiness, Explainable AI and Financial Innovation Capability Transitions in Expanded BRICS: Benchmarking Against Advanced Innovation Economies
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究通过可解释AI对比先进经济体，分析扩展金砖国家技术转移准备度与金融创新能力转型，发现其与先进经济体转移概率存不对称，为创新政策提供依据。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
本研究通过可解释人工智能，对比先进创新系统，考察扩展金砖国家的技术转移准备度与金融创新能力转型的动态。论文采用主成分分析构建复合创新能力发展-准备度指数（ICDI），评估支撑知识扩散、产业升级与金融创新生态系统发展的结构条件。运用马尔可夫转移框架分析各国随时间在准备度层级间的演化，捕捉创新能力的持续性与流动性。结果显示，先进经济体与新兴创新系统间的转移概率存在显著不对称，多个金砖国家展现渐进升级轨迹，而其他国家则在结构上锁定于较低准备度状态。这些发现凸显了强化技术转移生态系统所需的制度与政策条件，在这些领域表现出色的国家能吸引外国投资、参与全球价值链并从技术合作中获益。本研究将复合准备度测量与动态转移建模结合，为循证创新政策提供依据，对创新能力形成与产业转型文献作出贡献。
英文摘要
This study examines the dynamics of technology transfer readiness and financial innovation capability transitions across the expanded BRICS economies, benchmarked against advanced innovation systems through explainable AI. Using a composite Innovation Capability Development-Readiness index (ICDI) constructed through principal component analysis, the paper evaluates the structural conditions enabling knowledge diffusion, industrial upgrading, and financial innovation ecosystem development. A Markov transition framework is employed to analyse how countries evolve across readiness tiers over time, capturing both persistence and mobility in innovation capabilities. The results reveal significant asymmetries in transition probabilities between advanced economies and emerging innovation systems, with several BRICS economies demonstrating gradual upgrading trajectories while others remain structurally locked in lower readiness states. These findings highlight the institutional and policy conditions required to strengthen technology transfer ecosystems. Successful countries in these areas attract foreign investment, participate in global value chains, and profit from technology partnerships. The study contributes to the literature on innovation capability formation and industrial transformation by integrating composite readiness measurement with dynamic transition modelling to inform evidence-based innovation policy.
