发表机构
Machine Intelligence Research Institute（机器智能研究所）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文分析了可能导致政府失去约束先进AI能力的因素，建议采取保守方法并提出低成本政策，以在窗口关闭前保留政府约束AI发展的选择权。
AI 中文摘要
随着人工智能（AI）能力的提升，AI系统将对国家安全乃至整个人类构成更大风险。政府最终可能会认为这些风险有必要约束AI的发展，这就引出一个问题：如果政府未来想要约束AI发展，它们是否还具备这样做的能力？本文分析了哪些世界事件和AI发展状态的变化会让未来的治理变得更困难，甚至几乎不可能。我们的分析揭示了可能导致这些困难的路径，包括硬件扩散、算法的持续进步以及灾难性危险AI模型的发布。由于该领域对AI发展的理解不足，可能难以或无法知晓何时会达到“无法回头的临界点”，因此我们建议采取保守的方法。窗口可能正在关闭，但如果政府迅速行动，目前仍有机会保留选择权。我们的政策建议将使政府能够在未来约束AI发展，同时在当下施加相对较小的成本。
英文摘要
As AI capabilities advance, AI systems will pose greater risks to national security and potentially humanity as a whole. Governments may eventually conclude that these risks warrant restraining AI development. This motivates the question: will governments still be able to restrain AI development in the future, should they want to do so? In this paper we analyze which world events and changes to the state of AI development would make future governance more difficult or even effectively impossible. Our analysis surfaces likely pathways that would lead to these difficulties, including hardware proliferation, continued algorithmic progress, and the release of catastrophically dangerous AI models. Due to the field's lack of understanding of AI development, it may be difficult or impossible to know when we will hit a "point of no return", and we therefore recommend a conservative approach. The window may be closing, but governments currently have an opportunity to preserve their optionality if they act soon. Our policy recommendations would enable governments to restrain AI development in the future, while imposing relatively small costs today.
