AI 中文总结
本文提出SynFORd与NonSynFORd量化同步、非同步机组的故障概率，推导其闭式解析表达式，结合新英格兰系统数据发现非同步机组故障概率更高且离散程度更大，验证了同步机组可用性更优的默认认知。
AI 中文摘要
同步机组比非同步机组在需要时的可用性概率更高吗？电力系统运行默认认为同步机组因已与电网同步，在需要时更可能可用，而非同步机组需先启动并同步才可投入使用，但这种区别很少通过明确的量化指标体现。为量化该区别，本文考虑两类机组不同的初始运行状态，提出同步机组的故障概率SynFORd与非同步机组的故障概率NonSynFORd，这两类概率的补集直接对应机组在需要时的可用性概率。本文推导了闭式解析表达式，揭示两类机组的主导故障机制。基于新英格兰系统发电机组数据的案例研究显示，非同步机组的故障概率通常比同步机组更高且离散程度更大。
英文摘要
Do synchronized units have higher probabilities of being available when needed than non-synchronized units? Power system operation implicitly relies on the qualitative belief that synchronized units are more likely to be available when needed because they are already synchronized to the grid, whereas non-synchronized units must first start and synchronize before becoming available. However, this distinction is rarely expressed through an explicit quantitative measure. To quantify this distinction, we propose failure probabilities for synchronized and non-synchronized generating units, denoted by SynFORd and NonSynFORd, by accounting for their different initial operating states. The complements of the proposed probabilities directly represent the corresponding availability probabilities when the units are needed. Closed-form analytical expressions are derived, revealing the dominant failure mechanisms of the two unit types. Case studies using generating-unit data from the New England system show that non-synchronized units generally exhibit higher and more dispersed failure probabilities than synchronized units.
