AI 中文总结
本文结合OECD的SCDi指标与时空冲突数据，发现非洲边境地带冲突多于非边境地带，暴力随距边境距离增加而减少，其暴力事件占比随地区暴力周期变化，且跨境扩散时空间范围会扩大。
AI 中文摘要
本文研究非洲边境地带与政治暴力之间的关系。利用1997年至2024年冲突事件的时空数据，结合经合组织（OECD）创新的空间冲突动态指标（SCDi），研究表明边境地带的冲突多于非边境地带。在非洲，政治暴力随距边境的距离增加而迅速减少。边境地带记录的暴力事件占比随时间变化，反映特定地区的暴力周期：21世纪初因几内亚湾和大湖地区的战争占比极高，随后下降了不到十年，2010年代大幅上升。最后，研究显示冲突跨境扩散时，往往占据更大的空间范围，而非从边境一侧转移到另一侧。
英文摘要
This paper examines the relationship between borderlands and political violence in Africa. Using spatiotemporal data on conflict events from 1997 to 2024 alongside the innovative OECD Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), it suggests that borderlands see more conflict than non-borderlands. Political violence tends to decrease very rapidly with the distance to borders in Africa. The share of violent events recorded in borderlands varies over time and mirrors the cycles of violence that affect specific regions. It was very high in the early 2000s due to the wars in the Gulf of Guinea and Great Lakes region, declined for less than a decade, and increased substantially in the 2010s. Finally, the paper shows that when conflicts diffuse across borders, they tend to occupy a greater spatial extent, rather than relocate from one side of the border to the other.
