AI 中文总结
本文利用空间分解数据研究西非2012至2025年中期17国的政治暴力分布，发现暴力多集中于城市及周边但近年呈农村化趋势，为冲突城市化叙事提供区域背景并提出相关安全建议。
AI 中文摘要
本文利用空间分解的冲突与人口数据，研究西非的政治暴力在城市集聚区及其周边地区的分布情况。分析覆盖2012年至2025年中期的17个国家，结果显示政治暴力仍明显与城市及其周边地区相关，多数暴力发生在城市集聚区内部及周边。大城市在其边界内记录的事件数量最多，而更常位于边境附近的较小城镇，通常在其边界外经历更高水平的暴力。不过，以城市为中心的暴力自2012年以来也有所下降，表明冲突正逐渐向农村转移。这些发现通过表明西非叛乱运动战略性地利用城市和农村环境，为冲突城市化叙事提供了重要的区域背景；还强调了边缘人口的持续脆弱性，以及在主要城市以外采用基于社区的流动安全方法的必要性；最后，凸显了加强边境基础设施、交通网络和公民机构作为发展与安全工具的重要性。
英文摘要
This paper examines how political violence in West Africa is distributed between urban agglomerations and their surrounding areas using spatially disaggregated conflict and population data. Covering seventeen countries from 2012 to mid-2025, the analysis shows that political violence remains clearly tied to cities and their peripheries with the majority of violence occurring within and around urban agglomerations. Large cities record the highest number of incidents within their boundaries, while smaller towns, which are more frequently situated near borders, typically experience higher levels of violence outside their boundaries. However, urban-centric violence has also declined since 2012, indicating a progressive ruralization of conflict. These findings provide important regional context to the urbanization of conflict narrative by showing that West African insurgent movements use both urban and rural environments strategically. They also underscore the ongoing vulnerability of peripheral populations and the need for mobile and community-based security approaches outside major cities. Finally, they highlight the importance of strengthening border infrastructure, transport networks, and civic institutions as tools of both development and security.
