AI 中文总结
本研究利用GOES-16卫星与无线电太阳望远镜网络数据，训练弹性网正则化逻辑回归模型，发现超高频（8800 MHz）无线电测量可作为监测M5+级太阳耀斑的替代方法，信号平均提前3-4分钟出现。
AI 中文摘要
对大型太阳耀斑的早期检测对防御行动至关重要，因为这类耀斑可能干扰雷达和无线电系统。通常，软X射线通量被用于监测和分类太阳耀斑，但由于该通量需在太空测量，其可用性本身依赖于空间天气条件。因此，本文研究利用地面无线电观测监测大型（M5+级）太阳耀斑的可行性。研究使用GOES-16卫星与无线电太阳望远镜网络在2023年3月至2025年3月期间的数据集，训练了弹性网正则化逻辑回归模型，通过网格搜索优化，并纳入类别权重以处理类别不平衡问题。研究发现，尤其是高频（8800 MHz）对监测和预测大型耀斑具有合理能力：耀斑事件的精确率和召回率分别为53%和65%（意味着约三分之一的耀斑未被检测到），信号平均在M5阈值被超过前3至4分钟出现。因此，超高频的无线电测量可作为监测大型太阳耀斑活动的替代方法。
英文摘要
Early detection of major solar flares is critical for defense operations due to their potential to disturb radar and radio systems. Typically, soft X-ray flux is used to monitor and classify solar flares, but since this flux has to be measured in space, it means that its availability itself is dependent on space weather conditions. For this reason, in this paper, we investigated the feasibility of using ground radio observations to monitor major (M5+ class) solar flares. We made use of datasets from the GOES-16 satellite and the Radio Solar Telescope Network in the time range between March 2023 and March 2025. An elastic net regularized logistic regression model was trained on this data, optimized through a grid search and with incorporated class weighting for class imbalance. It was found that especially higher frequencies (8800 MHz) had a reasonable ability in monitoring and predicting major flares (precision and recall for flare events are 53% and 65%, respectively - implying that roughly one third of flares were not detected - with signals appearing, on average, 3 to 4 minutes before the M5 threshold is exceeded). Radio measurements at super high frequencies can thus serve as an alternative method to monitor major solar flaring activity.
Comments18 pages + 8 pages appendix, 1 figure, 4 tables
