生产冲击下，进口依赖度与人均产量是经济体粮食供应稳健性的主要决定因素
Import dependence and per capita production are main determinants of economies' food supply robustness under production shocks
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究以全球四大主食的2023年数据构建粮食供应网络，模拟生产冲击后发现进口依赖度和人均产量是稳健性的主要决定因素，针对高进口依赖经济体设计的两项政策仅能适度提升稳健性且效果因作物而异。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
主要生产经济体的粮食供应冲击可通过贸易网络传播，在全球粮食系统中产生不均衡影响。本研究考察全球主食体系中，经济体在主要生产国生产冲击下的粮食供应稳健性。利用2023年小麦、大米、玉米和大豆的生产、储备及双边贸易数据，构建跨经济体的卡路里基准全球粮食供应网络。扩展动态冲击传播框架，模拟主要生产经济体的生产冲击，追踪供应损失的传播路径。结果显示，不同作物和经济体的稳健性存在显著异质性：小麦整体稳健性最高，大豆最低。高稳健性经济体要么相对脱离贸易网络，要么在积极贸易的同时保持稳定强劲的国内生产；低稳健性经济体则主要是高进口依赖度的经济体。进口依赖度与人均产量成为稳健性的最重要决定因素。基于上述发现，针对高进口依赖度经济体设计两项反事实政策：增加储备供应、调整贸易关联。反事实实验表明，两项政策仅带来适度的整体改善，效果因作物差异显著：两项政策均提升了整体系统及小麦的稳健性；贸易调整对大米更有效；对玉米和大豆的效果有限甚至为负。
英文摘要
Food supply shocks in major producing economies can propagate through trade networks and generate uneven impacts across the global food system. This study examines the robustness of economies' food supply under production shocks to major producers in the global staple food system. Using 2023 production, reserve, and bilateral trade data for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean, we construct a calorie-based global food supply network across economies. We extend a dynamic shock propagation framework and then simulate production shocks to major producing economies, tracing how supply losses propagate. The results show substantial heterogeneity in robustness across crops and economies. Wheat exhibits the highest overall robustness, whereas soybean shows the lowest. Economies with high robustness tend to be either relatively isolated from the trade network or actively engaged in trade while maintaining strong and stable domestic production, whereas low-robustness economies are predominantly those with high import dependence. Import dependence and per capita production emerge as the most important determinants of robustness. Based on these findings, we design two counterfactual policies targeting highly import-dependent economies: increasing reserve availability and adjusting trade linkages. Counterfactual experiments show that the two policies yield only modest overall improvements, with effects varying substantially across crops. Both policies improve robustness in the aggregated system and wheat, trade adjustment is more effective for rice, and it brings limited or even negative effects for maize and soybean.
