AI 中文总结
本文研究发现全球煤炭贸易对海上战略咽喉点具有高度韧性，多数咽喉点关闭仅使进口商成本微涨，仅南海及东海受限影响较大，且会造成区域市场地理分隔，影响非全球统一。
AI 中文摘要
海上战略咽喉点及其对全球能源贸易的潜在破坏作用再度受到关注。本文分析全球煤炭贸易，发现其对海上战略咽喉点具有高度韧性，可行的咽喉点并不会真正切断海运市场的任何供应。贸易流的潜在改道、转向替代供应商或消费者，可缓解对成本和收入的影响。评估显示，若大多数可行咽喉点关闭，进口商成本仅会上涨0.5美元/吨或更低；例外情况是南海及东海的海上交通受限，这可能使中国的成本上涨10美元/吨，同时使该区域其他进口商的成本降低相近水平。海上战略咽喉点确实会造成区域市场的地理分隔，因此对进口商成本和出口商收入的影响并非全球统一。
英文摘要
Maritime chokepoints and their potential disruption of global trade in energy find renewed attention. We analyse global trade in coal, and find that trade volumes and prices are highly resilient to maritime chokepoints. Feasible chokepoints do not truly sever supply from the seaborne market. Effects on costs and revenues are further moderated by relatively large potential for re-routing of bilateral trade flows, with countries switching to alternative suppliers or consumers. We assess costs to importers would rise by as little as 0.5 \$/t or less in case of closures of most feasible chokepoints. The exception is a restriction to maritime traffic in the South and East China Sea, which could raise costs by 10 \$/t for China, whilst reducing costs for other importers in the region by similar levels. Maritime chokepoints do create geographical separation of regional markets, with differentiated effects on costs to importers and revenues to exporters in different regions.
