AI 中文总结
该研究利用下一代引力波探测器（ET、CE）估算双中子星多信使探测数量，通过贝叶斯推断展示其对中子星物态方程、质量分布及哈勃常数等宇宙学参数的约束能力，发现千新星光变曲线可助力宇宙学参数推断。
AI 中文摘要
下一代引力波（GW）天文台将为揭示中子星（NS）物质的本质及宇宙膨胀历史提供关键见解。我们利用爱因斯坦望远镜（ET）和宇宙探测器（CE）估算双中子星（BNS）的多信使探测数量，并通过联合分层贝叶斯推断预测其对物态方程（EOS）、BNS质量分布和宇宙学的约束能力。假设本地并合率为106.6 Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$，并考虑两种不同的质量函数：以1.4 $M_\bigodot$为中心的窄质量函数，以及范围在1.1–2 $M_\bigodot$的宽质量函数，我们发现，对于ET，我们的模拟后续算法每年至少能成功识别约40个电磁对应体，最多可达约100个，具体取决于探测器布局和质量分布。在与CE组成的联合网络中，多信使探测数量范围为约200至约500个。此外，通过专门的后期观测还能发现更多来自伽马射线暴或千新星（KNe）的余辉。基于已识别的多信使事件，我们开展了注入研究，在完全贝叶斯框架下分层约束EOS、质量分布和宇宙学参数。仅针对ET，我们展示了在理想情况下，GW信号、KNe及宿主星系红移如何将典型中子星半径$R_{1.4}$约束在约0.2 km以内，将哈勃常数$H_0$约束在约1 km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$以内，同时恢复质量分布的核心特征。通过对比仅依赖GW数据的推断结果与结合光变曲线信息的推断结果，我们发现，尽管KNe光变曲线的后验对EOS约束的影响可忽略不计，但它们能为宇宙学参数的推断提供助力。
英文摘要
Next-generation gravitational-wave (GW) observatories will provide crucial insights into the nature of neutron star (NS) matter and the cosmological expansion history. We estimate the number of multi-messenger detections from binary neutron stars (BNS) with the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE), and project the resulting constraints on the equation of state (EOS), BNS mass distribution, and cosmology via joint hierarchical Bayesian inference. Assuming a local merger rate of 106.6 Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ and considering two different mass functions, a narrow one centred around 1.4 $M_\odot$ and a wide one ranging between 1.1--2 $M_\odot$, we find that for ET, our mock follow-up algorithm results in at least $\sim40$ and up to $\sim100$ successfully identified electromagnetic counterparts per year, depending on the detector layout and mass distribution. In a joint network with CE, the number of multi-messenger detections can range from $\sim 200$ to $\sim500$. Additionally, several more afterglows from gamma-ray bursts or KNe could be found with dedicated late-time observations. Based on the identified multi-messenger events, we perform an injection campaign to hierarchically constrain the EOS, mass distribution, and cosmology in a fully Bayesian framework. Focussing on ET alone, we show how in an ideal scenario, GW signals, KNe, and host galaxy redshifts can constrain the canonical NS radius $R_{1.4}$ within $\sim 0.2$ km and the Hubble constant $H_0$ within $\sim 1$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, while recovering the essential features of the mass distribution. By comparing inference results that rely solely on GW data and those that incorporate light curve information, we find that while KN light-curve posteriors have a negligible impact on the EOS constraints, they can benefit the inference of cosmological parameters.
Comments30 pages, 14 figures, comments welcome
