AI 中文总结
该研究构建空间经济-SIR模型，利用美国县级数据分析流行病管理政策，发现无疫苗时封锁难改善放任均衡，两年内有疫苗时NPIs可优化结果，戴口罩等措施兼具防疫与促经济作用。
AI 中文摘要
对管理流行病的有效政策进行经济分析需要一种整合经济与流行病学的方法。我们开发并估计了一个微观基础的空间模型，用于描述经济变量与流行病传播的共同演化。我们利用美国县级每日频率的健康、流动性、就业结果及非药物干预（NPIs）的新数据对模型进行实证约束。在无政策或医疗干预的情况下，该模型预测新增病例会经历一段指数增长期，随后进入病例水平大致稳定且经济活动减少的长期阶段。然而，若疫苗研发不可能且压制措施无法完全根除疾病，功利主义政策制定者无法通过 lockdowns（封锁）显著改善放任均衡的结果；相反，若疫苗将在两年内到来，NPIs可通过大幅减少感染人数并维持低感染直至疫苗到来，来改善放任均衡的结果。减少病毒传播的缓解措施（如戴口罩）既降低了病毒传播，又增加了经济活动。
英文摘要
Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic. We empirically discipline the model using new U.S. county-level data on health, mobility, employment outcomes, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at a daily frequency. Absent policy or medical interventions, the model predicts an initial period of exponential growth in new cases, followed by a protracted period of roughly constant case levels and reduced economic activity. Nevertheless, if vaccine development proved impossible, and suppression cannot entirely eradicate the disease, a utilitarian policymaker cannot improve significantly over the laissez-faire equilibrium by using lockdowns. Conversely, if a vaccine will arrive within two years, NPIs can improve upon the laissez-faire outcome by dramatically decreasing the number of infectious agents and keeping infections low until vaccine arrival. Mitigation measures that reduce viral transmission (e.g., mask-wearing) both reduce the virus's spread and increase economic activity.
