基于数据的阶段结构寄主-寄生蜂模型：优化赤眼蜂防治大豆食心虫（Leguminivora glycinivorella）爆发的方案
A data-driven stage-structured host-parasitoid model for optimizing Trichogramma interventions against soybean pod borer (Leguminivora glycinivorella) outbreaks
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究开发耦合害虫生命周期与赤眼蜂卵寄生机制的阶段结构寄主-寄生蜂模型，基于长春数据校准获$Q_{EIL}$，确定最优赤眼蜂释放参数，为大豆食心虫精准生物防治提供数学决策工具。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
大豆食心虫（Leguminivora glycinivorella）对全球大豆构成严重威胁。本研究开发了一个阶段结构的寄主-寄生蜂动态模型，明确耦合了完全变态的害虫生命周期与赤眼蜂（Trichogramma wasps）专性卵寄生机制。利用吉林省长春市的田间监测数据，通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（Markov Chain Monte Carlo，MCMC）方法严格估算关键生物学参数。校准后建立了仅基于破坏性幼虫阶段的精确经济损害水平（Economic Injury Level，$Q_{EIL}$），为0.0389头/$m^2$。通过对不同干预场景的理论与数值分析，确定了最优连续释放率（$C^* = 2.645$），可有效抑制爆发且不会造成寄生蜂的无效累积。此外，模拟表明5天的脉冲释放间隔能在严格控害与田间操作成本间提供最优平衡。本研究弥合了理论种群动力学与应用农业管理的差距，为作物害虫的精准生物防治提供了直接可用的数学决策工具。
英文摘要
The soybean pod borer (Leguminivora glycinivorella) poses a severe threat to global soybean production.In this study, we developed a stage-structured host-parasitoid dynamic model that explicitly couples the holometabolous life cycle of the pest with the obligate egg-parasitism mechanism of Trichogramma wasps. Utilizing field monitoring data from Changchun, Jilin Province, key biological parameters were rigorously estimated via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.This calibration facilitated the establishment of a precise Economic Injury Level ($Q_{EIL}$) of 0.0389 individuals/$m^2$, based solely on the destructive larval stage. Through theoretical and numerical analyses of different intervention scenarios, we identified an optimal continuous release rate ($C^* = 2.645$) that efficiently suppresses the outbreak without causing wasteful parasitoid accumulation. Furthermore, simulations demonstrate that a 5-day impulsive release interval provides the optimal balance between strict pest suppression and field operational costs. This study bridges the gap between theoretical population dynamics and applied agricultural management, providing a directly applicable mathematical decision-making tool for the precise biological control of crop pests.
