AI 中文总结
本研究通过利用柔佛州投票站的种族和年龄构成差异，估计了2022-2026年三次选举中按种族和年龄划分的投票率及联盟支持率，得出五项关键发现，提供了马来西亚首个公开可复现的投票行为生态估计。
AI 中文摘要
在2026年7月柔佛州选举中，国民阵线（BN）横扫该州，得票率较2022年几乎翻倍。我们利用投票站种族构成的地理差异，以及选举管理导致的投票时段年龄构成差异，对2022年以来柔佛州三次选举中按种族和年龄划分的投票率及联盟支持率进行估计，得出五项关键发现：（1）投票率是决定选举结果的首要因素，同一种族群体的投票率在不同选举间变动幅度可达26个百分点，且符合生命周期规律；（2）国民阵线的崛起对应着马来选民中国民联盟（PN）的近乎同步崩溃，即便国民联盟在56个席位中的23个席位放弃参选，这一结果依然成立；（3）转向国民阵线的最大逆转来自年轻马来选民，他们曾是2022年“绿色浪潮”的主力；（4）希望联盟（PH）在华人选民中支持率下降的三分之二源于华人投票率降低，转向国民阵线的比例相对较小；（5）2026年国民阵线支持率的表面年龄梯度，很大程度上是种族构成差异而非群体内部行为导致：到2026年，马来选民对各联盟的支持率在各年龄段基本持平。更广泛而言，我们提供了据信是马来西亚所有选举中首个公开且完全可复现的投票行为生态估计，附带针对保留样本行为测量的特定估计量验证误差。
英文摘要
At the July 2026 Johor state election, Barisan Nasional (BN) swept the state and nearly doubled its vote relative to 2022. We exploit geographic variation in the ethnic composition of polling stations and administration-induced variation in the age composition of polling streams to estimate turnout and coalition support by ethnicity and age for the three elections involving Johor since 2022, with five key findings. (1) Turnout is a first-order driver of outcomes, moving by up to 26 points within an ethnic group across elections and following a life-cycle profile. (2) BN's surge was a near one-for-one Perikatan Nasional (PN) collapse among Malay voters, robust to PN's stand-down in 23 of 56 seats. (3) The largest reversal towards BN was among young Malays, who had previously carried the `green wave' of 2022. (4) Two-thirds of Pakatan Harapan's (PH) decline among the Chinese electorate came through lower Chinese turnout; any crossover to BN was comparatively small. (5) The apparent youth gradient in BN's 2026 support is largely ethnic composition rather than within-group behaviour: by 2026, Malay support for every coalition was close to flat in age. More broadly, we provide what we believe are the first open and fully reproducible ecological estimates of voting behaviour for any Malaysian election, accompanied by estimand-specific validation errors measured against held-out behaviour.
Comments39 pages, 11 figures, 7 tables
