气候变化背景下物理基础设施的系统特定灾害建模结构
Structure of System-Specific Hazard Modeling for Physical Infrastructures in a Climate Change Context
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文提出概率布尔灾害模型，针对气候变化背景下物理基础设施的系统特定灾害建模问题，生成适配的随时间演化灾害图，验证了其实际应用价值。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
本文针对受气候变化影响的物理系统（尤其是基础设施）中的灾害定义与建模问题展开研究，强调灾害具有系统依赖性——同一区域的极端强度分布变化未必会对特定系统（如人类）构成灾害，但可能对另一系统（如基础设施）构成灾害，这些差异对气候变化背景下的风险评估与适应策略至关重要。本文采用一种简单的基于阈值的灾害模型——概率布尔灾害模型，聚焦于气候变化背景下的系统特定灾害定义，通过用例展示该方法如何适配不同系统与灾害类型，生成随时间演化的灾害图，提供兼顾灾害类型与基础设施特性的定制化灾害数据，用例验证了其实际价值及在多基础设施、多灾害暴露建模中更广泛应用的潜力。
英文摘要
This paper addresses the definition and modeling of hazards in the context of physical systems, particularly infrastructures, that are affected by climate change. The paper highlights that hazards are system-dependent, meaning what constitutes a hazard for one system (e.g., humans) may not be the same for another (e.g., infrastructures). The paper also highlights that extreme intensity distribution may evolve in a region without necessarily constituting a hazard for a specific system. These distinctions are crucial for risk assessment and adaptation strategies in a changing climate. The paper implements a simple threshold-based hazard model -Boolean Hazard Model with Probability -to focus exclusively on system-specific hazard definition in climatechange context. Use cases illustrate how this approach adapts to different systems and hazard types. The model produces time-evolving hazard maps, delivering hazard data tailored to both hazard type and infrastructure characteristics. The model provides hazard data tailored to specific hazard types and physical systems, with a focus on infrastructure. The use cases demonstrate their practical value and potential for broader application in multi-infrastructure and multi-hazard exposure modeling.
