AI 中文总结
本文提出关系首要性一般理论，通过形式化公理构建假设 - 演绎框架，证明基础定理并引入不变量。利用时变卡尔曼滤波器估计参数β，经验证据和模拟验证表明其比经典预警信号提前出现，该理论具有普遍性，适用于多领域。
AI 中文摘要
本文提出关系首要性一般理论（GTRP），这是一个用于理解复杂系统中稳定性、危机和转变的概念与形式框架。核心论点是系统由组织它们的关系而非变量定义，变量只是深层关系机制的后期表现。危机源于关系的无声重组而非变量本身变化。文中形式化了三条公理并推导得出一个完整的假设 - 演绎框架，还证明了一个基础定理，引入类似能量守恒的理论不变量，提出危机、关系因果性和关系信息的通用定义。通过时变卡尔曼滤波器估计的参数β(t)能以更高灵敏度测量这种重组。经验证据和对六个模拟系统的验证表明β比经典预警信号提前出现。该理论具有普遍性，适用于气候、生物、经济、人工智能和系统主权等领域。
英文摘要
This paper presents the General Theory of Relational Primacy (GTRP), a conceptual and formal framework for understanding stability, crisis, and transition in complex systems. The central thesis is that systems are not defined by their variables but by the relations that organize them. Variables are merely late manifestations of deep relational mechanisms. Crises arise from the silent reorganization of these relations, not from changes in the variables themselves. We formalize three axioms (relational primacy, antecedence of relations, and universality of coupling) and derive from them a complete hypothetico-deductive framework (hypotheses H1-H5, validity conditions C1-C6, and properties P1-P5 of the observable beta). We prove a foundational theorem establishing that every complex system possesses an irreducible relational level, introduce an invariant of the theory analogous to the conservation of energy, and propose universal definitions of crisis, relational causality, and relational information. The parameter beta(t) = d log y / d log x, estimated via a time-varying Kalman filter in the log-log space, measures this reorganization with an O(delta theta) sensitivity, one order of magnitude faster than classical O((delta theta)^2) signals. The empirical evidence (NASA AIRS data, 2002-2026) and validations on six simulated systems confirm that beta precedes classical early warning signals by 14 to 24 months and 39 to 153 time steps. The theory is designed to be universal, applicable to climate, biology, economics, artificial intelligence, and sovereignty of systems.
