AI 中文总结
研究风电变异性挑战，开发双机制统计框架。在空气动力学运行状态下推导风电分布解析表达式，在控制主导的近额定状态下表征功率亏缺，为风力涡轮机全运行范围的风电波动提供物理解释统计描述。
AI 中文摘要
风电变异性是将公用事业规模风能可靠集成到现代电力系统中的主要挑战。尽管风速统计通常由简单的参数分布描述，但将这些统计转换为涡轮机级功率波动并非易事，因为风速与功率之间的关系高度非线性且在不同涡轮机运行状态下会发生变化。在此，我们开发了一种用于风电分布的双机制统计框架。在空气动力学运行状态下，在切入和额定速度之间，涡轮机功率对风速近似呈三次方依赖关系。从风速大小的物理动机莱斯模型出发，我们通过变量的非线性变化推导出相应风电分布的解析表达式。在控制主导的近额定状态下，主动叶片变桨和发电机控制调节涡轮机输出，空气动力学转换不再适用。相反，我们表征相对于额定功率的功率亏缺，并通过经验表明其连续尾部对于单个涡轮机和风电场集合均由有界拉伸指数分布很好地描述。这些结果提供了公用事业规模风力涡轮机全运行范围内风电波动的物理解释统计描述。
英文摘要
Wind-power variability is a major challenge for the reliable integration of utility-scale wind energy into modern power systems. Although wind-speed statistics are often described by simple parametric distributions, translating these statistics into turbine-level power fluctuations is nontrivial because the relationship between wind speed and power is highly nonlinear and changes across different turbine operating regimes. Here, we develop a two-regime statistical framework for wind-power distributions. In the aerodynamic operating regime, between the cut-in and rated speeds, the turbine power follows an approximate cubic dependence on wind speed. Starting from a physically motivated Rician model for the wind-speed magnitude, we derive an analytical expression for the corresponding wind-power distribution using a nonlinear change of variables. In the control-dominated near-rated regime, where active blade-pitch and generator control regulate the turbine output, the aerodynamic transformation is no longer applicable. Instead, we characterize the power deficit relative to the rated power and show empirically that its continuous tail is well described by a bounded stretched-exponential distribution for both individual turbines and wind-farm ensembles. These results provide a physically interpretable statistical description of wind-power fluctuations across the full operational range of utility-scale wind turbines.
Comments13 pages, 9 figures
