人工智能浪潮与游戏发现的重塑：供应过剩、结构调整与智能玩家-游戏匹配
The AI Wave and the Reinvention of Game Discovery: Oversupply, Structural Correction, and Agentic Player-Game Matching
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中文总结 AI 辅助
探讨人工智能带来的游戏供应过剩问题，通过量化供应冲击、比较历史分析及分析自然实验，研究其是市场崩溃还是结构调整，以及所需发现基础设施，为游戏市场发展提供参考。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
人工智能辅助生产大幅降低了发行电子游戏所需的成本和团队规模，给开放市场带来供应冲击。近期估计Steam每日新发行约60款游戏，许多游戏的每款收入中位数低于平台提交费用。本文探讨由此产生的供应过剩是新兴市场崩溃还是结构调整，以及市场将需要何种发现基础设施。首先利用Steam元数据快照、Steam用户行为数据集和相关目录数据量化2010 - 2026年的供应冲击，计算注意力集中指标，并引入生成资产模型发布速度作为生产成本下降的候选领先指标。接着与1983年北美电子游戏崩溃进行比较历史分析，确定结构差异。最后分析Netflix Games、Xbox Game Pass和Poki等基于访问的发行自然实验。
英文摘要
AI-assisted production has sharply reduced the cost and team size required to ship a video game, producing a supply shock on open marketplaces. Recent estimates put Steam release volume at roughly sixty new titles per day, with median per-title revenue for a large share of releases falling below the platform's own submission fee [1]. This paper asks whether the resulting oversupply constitutes an emerging market crash or a structural correction, and what discovery infrastructure the market will require as a consequence. We first quantify the 2010-2026 supply shock using a 93,073-title Steam metadata snapshot, a 200,000-interaction Steam user-behavior dataset, and itch.io catalog data, computing attention-concentration metrics directly (Gini coefficient of 0.96 over playtime, with the top 1 percent of titles absorbing 73.5 percent of total play hours), and we introduce generative asset-model release velocity on Hugging Face as a candidate leading indicator of production-cost decline. We then conduct a comparative-historical analysis against the 1983 North American video game crash, the closest documented case of supply-driven collapse in the medium's history, identifying which structural divergences (digital distribution, diversified incumbent revenue, and consolidation capital) redirect the present contraction toward concentration rather than collapse, drawing on incumbent evidence including Ubisoft's 2025-26 restructuring and its transfer of equity to Tencent-backed Vantage Studios. Third, we analyze Netflix Games, Xbox Game Pass, and the curated browser platform Poki as natural experiments in access-based distribution.
