发表机构
Indiana University（印第安纳大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文将哈加尔和塞尔乔利对客观概率的新解释应用于容错量子计算，把FTQC可行性转化为每十年抑制逻辑错误的瓦特数，指出已有相关数据点，并说明两次测量可解决问题，揭示关于FTQC的争论是关于目标逻辑状态资源受限客观概率的定量争议。
AI 中文摘要
2011年，哈加尔和塞尔乔利提出了一种在确定性物理中对客观概率的新解释。在此解释中，物理状态的概率取决于从给定状态实现该状态所需的资源（随时间的能量）与可用资源的相对关系。本文将此解释应用于更实际的主题：容错量子计算（FTQC）。在哈加尔和塞尔乔利提出的资源受限度量下，阈值定理变成了一个关于分类的断言。该定理最初从一个不完整的资源清单得出此断言，遗漏了纠错消耗的四种资源。本文将FTQC的可行性转化为可测量的量，即每十年抑制逻辑错误的瓦特数，还指出已有的记录包含了此转化的首批数据点，并说明了能凭经验解决问题的两次测量。关于FTQC长达三十年的争论，在这种解释下，原来是关于单个对象的定量争议：目标逻辑状态的资源受限客观概率。
英文摘要
In 2011 Hagar & Sergioli proposed a new interpretation of objective probability in deterministic physics. On it, the probability of a physical state supervenes on the resources, energy over time, required to realize it from a given state, relative to the resources available (arXiv:1101.3521). The motivation for that paper was an objective alternative to QBism, the view that sees quantum probabilities as subjective degrees of belief. Here I apply this interpretation to a more practical subject matter: fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). Under the resource-bounded measure Hagar & Sergioli proposed, the threshold theorem becomes a claim about classification: it asserts that error-corrected logical states belong to the class of relatively cheaply realizable states, whose probability remains near 1 as the machine grows. The theorem originally derived this claim from a resource inventory that was partial, and left out four resources consumed by error correction: calibration of a drifting device, decoding within the correction cycle, coherence as a finite time budget, and entropy flush through fresh ancillas. These entered the original derivation at zero price. Here I translate the feasibility of FTQC into a measurable quantity, watts per decade of suppressed logical error (a decade, in the engineer's usage, being one factor of ten in the error rate). I then show that the published record already contains its first data points for this translation, and I state the two measurements that would settle the question empirically. The three-decade debate on FTQC, conducted so far as an exchange about noise-model assumptions, turns out to be, under this interpretation, a quantitative dispute about a single object: the resource-bounded objective probability of the target logical states.
Commentsv3 adds dynamical decoupling to the inventory of omitted control costs, and requires Λ to be read from DD-optimized baselines at a named depth, following Vezvaee et al. (2026); minor citation corrections
