发表机构
Universidad Privada de Santa Cruz de la Sierra（圣克鲁斯私立大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
研究针对玻利维亚路障缺乏预测系统的问题，提出将时间序列分解与自然语言处理技术结合的混合概率预测系统，经实验比较多种配置和基准，结果显示该混合配置性能更优，能检测社会紧张高峰，为运输走廊风险管理提供工具。
AI 中文摘要
玻利维亚的路障是一种社会冲突现象，对经济有巨大破坏影响，相当于国内生产总值的4%。但缺乏本地预测系统用于后勤决策。本文提出一种混合概率预测系统，将时间序列分解（Prophet）与自然语言处理（NLP）技术结合，应用于六年的玻利维亚新闻语料库。利用向量语义嵌入和零样本分类模型捕捉路障出现前的话语升级信号。通过扩展的向前验证方案，在1762天和七个预测期（H+1到H+7）上比较了七种内部配置和四个外部基准。结果表明混合配置（Prophet + NLP，C6）始终优于纯统计模型，在H+1时AUC-ROC为0.677，相对于基线时间模型Brier分数降低10.9%。该研究验证了语义新闻信号的整合能检测历史惯性未捕捉到的社会紧张高峰，为关键运输走廊的风险管理提供技术工具。
英文摘要
Roadblocks in Bolivia are a social conflict phenomenon with devastating economic impacts, estimated at losses equivalent to 4% of the national Gross Domestic Product. Despite their recurrence and impact, there is a lack of local predictive systems to anticipate these events for logistical decision-making. This paper presents a hybrid probabilistic forecasting system that integrates time series decomposition (Prophet) with natural language processing (NLP) techniques applied to a six-year corpus of Bolivian news coverage. The methodology employs vector semantic embeddings and zero-shot classification models to capture signals of discursive escalation prior to the materialization of the roadblocks. Using an expanding walk-forward validation scheme applied over 1,762 days and seven forecasting horizons (H+1 to H+7), seven internal configurations and four external benchmarks were compared, including SARIMA and LightGBM. The results demonstrate that the hybrid configuration (Prophet + NLP, C6) consistently outperforms purely statistical models, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.677 at H+1 and reducing the Brier Score by 10.9% relative to the baseline temporal model (0.220 vs. 0.247), maintaining a statistically significant error reduction across all evaluated horizons ($p < 0.02$). This research validates that the integration of semantic news signals allows for the detection of social tension peaks not captured by historical inertia, providing a technical tool for risk management in critical transport corridors.
Comments21 pages in English + 21 pages in Spanish, 7 figures
