加速欧洲实现化石天然气独立
Accelerating fossil gas independence in Europe
AI总结：
研究欧洲减少对化石天然气进口依赖的问题，通过在能源系统模型中限制供应来优化减排，发现虽能降消费达经济目标，但仅靠此无法让消费者免受价格波动影响，需额外政策措施。
AI中文摘要：
近期的价格冲击促使人们呼吁减少欧洲对化石天然气进口的依赖，但这一目标的成本以及对消费者的保护程度仍不确定。在此，我们通过在欧洲能源系统模型中对化石天然气供应施加限制来解决这一差距，该模型以高时空分辨率共同优化所有天然气用途的减排。减少进口依赖在经济上颇具吸引力：通过发电以及工业和建筑领域低温供热的节省，欧洲每年可将天然气消费量减半，花费160亿欧元，使需求与欧洲大陆2000亿立方米的产能相匹配。这一额外的系统成本与消费者如今因天然气进口价格每兆瓦时上涨2欧元所花费的相当。然而，仅这种主权并不能使消费者免受全球天然气价格波动影响：我们发现，即使在混合能源中占比小，天然气在形成边际电价方面仍占主导，若无额外政策措施，消费者仍会受影响。
英文摘要：
Recent price shocks have prompted calls to curb Europe's dependence on fossil gas imports, but the cost of this goal, and the consumer protection it affords, remain uncertain. Here we address this gap by imposing constraints on fossil gas supply in a European energy system model that co-optimises abatement across all gas uses at high spatio-temporal resolution. Cutting import reliance proves economically compelling: through savings in power generation and low-temperature heat in industry and buildings, Europe can halve its natural gas consumption for 16bnEUR/a, aligning demand with the continent's production capacity of 200 bcm. This extra system cost is comparable to what consumers spend today on a 2 EUR/MWh rise in gas import prices. However, this sovereignty alone does not shield consumers from global gas price volatility: we find that, even at a small share of the mix, gas remains dominant in shaping the marginal electricity price, leaving consumers exposed without additional policy measures.
