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持枪的好人?加拿大合法枪支拥有与枪支死亡及犯罪之间的关系

Good Guys With Guns? The Relationship Between Legal Firearm Ownership and Firearm Deaths and Crime in Canada

Derek Mikola, Matthew D. Webb

arXiv 2607.20667首次发表:更新:

AI 中文总结

研究加拿大合法枪支拥有与犯罪及死亡的关系,利用2013 - 2019年新行政数据,发现手枪拥有量升50%、受限许可证增70%,评估相关立法措施,结果显示几乎没有证据表明它们与犯罪死亡存在强关联。

AI 中文摘要

民用枪支所有权在政治上存在争议,但大多数将枪支与犯罪和死亡联系起来的证据来自美国。加拿大是一个独特的案例:有严格的国家法规以及广泛的合法枪支拥有情况。利用2013年至2019年的新行政数据,我们研究了枪支普及率与凶杀、自杀及枪支相关犯罪之间的关联。在此期间,我们发现手枪拥有量上升了50%,受限许可证增加了70%。近期立法提议冻结手枪并回购步枪。我们评估这些措施是否可能提高安全性,或者现有法律是否已经达到平衡。我们几乎没有发现存在强关联的证据。

英文摘要

Civilian firearm ownership is politically contentious, yet most evidence linking guns to crime and death comes from the U.S. Canada offers a unique case: strict national regulations alongside widespread legal ownership. Using new administrative data from 2013-2019, we examine associations between gun prevalence and homicides, suicides, and firearms-related crime. During this period, we find that handgun ownership rose 50\% and restricted licenses by 70\%. Recent legislation proposes a handgun freeze and rifle buyback. We assess whether these measures are likely to improve safety or whether existing laws already strike a balance. We find little evidence of a strong relationship.

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