发表机构
Stony Brook University; Columbia Law School; University of Michigan; MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy（纽约州立大学石溪分校; 哥伦比亚法学院; 密歇根大学; 麻省理工学院数字经济倡议）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
研究通过对亚马逊上自出版小说检测，发现含大量AI文本书籍占书目比重大但销售占比小，其达商业规模且重塑市场，单本销售收入下降，还影响不同类型书籍及畅销书语言借鉴情况，结果关乎版权侵权合理使用抗辩的市场效应问题。
AI 中文摘要
生成式人工智能能够以近乎零成本创作出篇幅达书籍长度的虚构作品。这些书籍常被视为低质量的“垃圾”而遭买家忽视，且被认为商业价值不大。我们通过对2023年至2026年在亚马逊上销售的14419本自出版类型小说进行全文人工智能检测，并匹配到2026年6月的每日销售记录来验证这一假设。这些书均未披露是否包含人工智能生成的内容。我们发现，检测出大量人工智能文本（>25%）的书籍在书目总量中占比大，但销售占比小。即便如此，它们达到了商业规模，随着时间推移销售份额不断增加，占据了更多原本由未检测出人工智能文本的书籍所占据的稀缺高位。在此期间，一个季度内有销售记录的书籍数量增长了19.2倍，而季度收入仅增长了8.9倍。因此，市场上书籍销售数量的增长速度超过了收入增长速度，大多数类型书籍的单本销售收入下降。在人工智能传播率高的类型中，尤其是Kindle Unlimited可用性高的地方，无人工智能文本的书籍损失最大。在畅销书当中，有大量人工智能文本的书籍比无人工智能文本的书籍借鉴了更多现有书籍中的独特语言；对于这些书来说，重叠度随收入上升，而无人工智能文本的书籍则未检测到这种梯度变化。因此，生成式人工智能可通过规模而非质量重塑创意市场。我们的结果直接关乎版权侵权合理使用抗辩核心的市场效应问题。
英文摘要
Generative AI can produce book-length works of fiction at near-zero cost. These books are often dismissed as low-quality ``slop'' that buyers will ignore, and are assumed to carry little commercial weight. We test that assumption with full-text AI detection across 14,419 self-published genre-fiction books sold on Amazon from 2023 to 2026, matched to daily sales records through June 2026. None of these books disclose whether or not they contain AI-produced content. We find that books for which we detected substantial AI text ($>$ 25\%) make up a large share of the catalog but a smaller share of sales. Even so, they reach commercial scale, winning a growing share of sales over time and taking more of the scarce top-rank positions once held by books with no detected AI text. Over this period, the number of books with observed sales in a quarter grew 19.2-fold, while quarterly revenue grew only 8.9-fold. The market therefore added selling books faster than it added revenue, and revenue per selling book fell across most genres. Books with no AI text lose the most ground in genres with high AI diffusion, and most of all where Kindle Unlimited availability is high. Among top-selling books, those with substantial AI text draw on more distinctive language from existing books than do books with no AI text; for these books overlap rises with revenue, a gradient we do not detect for books with no AI text. Generative AI can thus reshape a creative market through scale rather than quality. Our results bear directly on the market-effect question at the center of the fair use defense to copyright infringement.
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