TRUST-ESD：一种用于不确定性下企业战略决策支持的风险校准和治理感知人工智能框架
TRUST-ESD: A Risk-Calibrated and Governance-Aware AI Framework for Enterprise Strategic Decision Support Under Uncertainty
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中文总结 AI 辅助
针对企业战略决策支持需求，TRUST-ESD框架通过多种方法评估策略，能平衡价值、可靠性、风险暴露和合规性。实验表明其相比基线提升了多项指标，消融和案例分析证实相关因素共同改善企业决策。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
企业战略决策支持需要不仅准确，而且能感知不确定性、进行风险校准、可解释且符合治理要求的人工智能系统。本文提出了TRUST-ESD，一个用于不确定性下企业决策支持的风险校准和治理感知框架。它通过预测效用估计、共形不确定性校准、基于CVaR的下行风险评分、风险记忆检索、政策即代码治理、可解释性和人工监督来评估可行的反事实策略。实验结果表明，与强大的不确定性感知基线相比，TRUST-ESD在保持有竞争力的预测准确性的同时，提高了风险调整后的效用、降低了风险暴露、减少了CVaR、降低了校准误差、提高了解释保真度并增加了治理合规性。消融和案例研究分析进一步证实了不确定性校准、下行风险评分、风险记忆、可解释性和治理验证共同改善了可信赖的企业决策。
英文摘要
Enterprise strategic decision support requires AI systems that are not only accurate, but also uncertainty-aware, risk-calibrated, explainable, and governance-compliant. This paper proposes TRUST-ESD, a risk-calibrated and governance-aware framework for enterprise decision support under uncertainty. TRUST-ESD evaluates feasible counterfactual strategies through predictive utility estimation, conformal uncertainty calibration, CVaR-based downside-risk scoring, risk-memory retrieval, policy-as-code governance, explainability, and human oversight. Unlike prediction-only methods that select actions by maximum expected utility, TRUST-ESD recommends strategies that balance value, reliability, risk exposure, and compliance. Experimental results show that TRUST-ESD improves risk-adjusted utility by 7.95%, reduces risk exposure by 23.22%, reduces CVaR by 23.78%, lowers calibration error by 13.89%, improves explanation fidelity by 10.90%, and increases governance compliance by 9.76% compared with strong uncertainty-aware baselines, while maintaining competitive predictive accuracy. Ablation and case-study analyses further confirm that uncertainty calibration, downside-risk scoring, risk memory, explainability, and governance validation jointly improve trustworthy enterprise decision-making.
发表机构
- School of Economics and Management, Xinyu University（新余学院经济与管理学院）
- College of Computer Science, Chongqing University（重庆大学计算机科学学院）
- School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University（重庆大学经济与工商管理学院）
- School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学管理学院）
- School of Law and Public Administration, China Three Gorges University（三峡大学法学与公共管理学院）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
