AI 中文总结
研究探讨人们陷入阴谋论兔子洞的原因，通过分析推文用序列风险模型等揭示阴谋论间相互作用及定居者效应，比较多种模型，发现传染病生态模型能重现相关动态，还表明防止阴谋论首次公开认可有重要作用。
AI 中文摘要
人们为何会陷入阴谋论兔子洞？先前研究从心理和算法原因解释，结果不一。本文认为兔子洞也可能源于作为社会传播的阴谋论之间的相互作用。利用新冠疫情第一波期间7416名X用户的760万条推文，用提示调整的大语言模型识别15种阴谋叙事的公众认可。序列风险模型表明，陷入阴谋论会增加分享后续阴谋论的风险，且随着分享数量增加而增长并持续更长时间，理论间转换集中在语义相近叙事中，揭示了介导社会传播的语义相互作用。还记录了定居者效应。比较了一系列基于主体的模型，发现传染病生态模型最能重现这些动态。通过反事实网络模拟发现，防止阴谋论首次公开认可可媲美高检测影子禁令且优于为期一周的只读锁定。
英文摘要
Why do people fall into conspiracy theory rabbit holes? Prior research explains rabbit holes via psychological and algorithmic causes, yielding inconsistent findings. Here, we argue that rabbit holes can also arise from interactions among conspiracy theories spreading as social contagions. Using 7.6 million tweets from 7,416 X users during the first wave of COVID-19, we identify public endorsement of 15 conspiracy narratives with prompt-tuned large language models. Sequential hazard models show that, characteristic of rabbit holes, adopting a conspiracy theory elevates the risk of sharing subsequent conspiracy theories, that this elevation grows and persists longer with the number of conspiracy theories shared, and that transitions between theories concentrate among semantically proximate narratives, revealing semantic interactions that mediate social contagions. We also document what we term the settler effect: a user's entry into a new semantic region is slower, but once entry occurs, subsequent within-region adoption accelerates. We compare a range of agent-based models in their ability to reproduce these dynamics. Neither independent adoption nor a generic post-adoption increase in susceptibility reproduces the joint temporal and semantic pattern of the settler effect; among the alternatives considered, an ecology-of-contagions model that formalizes belief-system reshaping most parsimoniously reproduces these patterns. Using counterfactual network simulations that account for interactions among conspiracy theories, we find that preventing the first public endorsement of a conspiracy theory can rival high-detection shadow banning and outperform week-long read-only lockouts at reducing the spread of conspiracy theories.
Comments49 pages, 13 figures, 5 tables, including supplementary appendix
