局部和全球太阳磁场对日冕物质抛射数量和参数中期预测的影响
Influence of local and global solar magnetic fields on medium-term forecasting of the number and parameters of coronal mass ejections
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中文总结 AI 辅助
研究第23 - 25太阳活动周CMEs数量和参数周期性变化，提出分别预测强弱CMEs的方法，基于GMF参数确定相关周期特征，通过假设和比例关系对第26活动周进行预测，预测与第25活动周观测结果吻合良好。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
对第23 - 25太阳活动周中日冕物质抛射（CMEs）数量和参数的周期性变化研究表明，强、弱CMEs行为存在差异，强CMEs随活动区周期性演化。提出分别预测强、弱CMEs的方法，基于全球磁场（GMF）参数确定了第26和27太阳活动周极小值时间、第26太阳活动周持续时间等。通过假设第26和20活动周相似性对第26活动周进行Wolf数预测，基于第23活动周强弱CMEs比例对第25和26活动周弱CMEs进行预测，第25活动周预测与观测结果吻合良好。
英文摘要
A study of cyclic variations in the number and parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in cycles 23-25 demonstrates differences in the behavior of strong and weak CMEs. Strong CMEs, unlike weak CMEs, follow the cyclic evolution of active regions. A method for separately predicting strong and weak CMEs is proposed. Based on global magnetic field (GMF) parameters, the timing of the minima of cycles 26 and 27 (CR~2375$\pm5$ and CR~2526$\pm5$), the duration of cycle 26 (151~CRs or 11.2838 years), and the periods of dominance of the GMF sectorial structure in cycles 25 and 26 ($\approx$CRs 2245-2355 and $\approx$CRs~2395-2546) were determined. Assuming similarities between cycles 26 and 20, a Wolf number forecast was made for cycle 26, based on which the number of strong CMEs in cycles 25 and 26 was predicted. Based on the ratio of weak to strong CMEs in cycle 23, a forecast of weak CMEs in cycles 25 and 26 was made. A comparison of the predicted and observed CME parameters in cycle 25 shows good agreement.
