AI 中文总结
研究在理论上的中国 - 外蒙古政治统一情景下稀土和能源材料供应链，构建动态局部均衡斯塔克尔伯格模型，整合三个地理节点及核心机制，通过校准模拟三种情景，为应对供应波动和资源安全风险提供策略。
AI 中文摘要
关键稀土元素、锂、铜和煤炭支撑着全球清洁能源转型和先进制造业，但中国在与外蒙古的跨境矿产贸易碎片化中面临持续的供应波动和资源安全风险。本文构建了一个2026 - 2036年的动态局部均衡斯塔克尔伯格供应链模型，整合了三个地理节点：外蒙古的矿产开采部门、内蒙古包头的稀土加工中心以及世界其他地区的剩余需求。该模型内生化了包括受基础设施存量限制的矿产供应曲线、滞后资本积累、里昂惕夫加工生产函数、利润驱动投资以及使中国贴现社会福利最大化的最优出口税政策等核心机制。校准并模拟了三种比较情景：基线现状贸易框架、中蒙深度资源整合以及跨境基础设施延迟的反事实情景。
英文摘要
Critical rare earth elements, lithium, copper, and coal underpin global clean energy transitions and advanced manufacturing, yet China faces persistent supply volatility and resource security risks amid fragmented cross-border mineral trade with Outer Mongolia. This paper constructs a dynamic partial equilibrium Stackelberg supply chain model spanning ten years, integrating three geographic nodes: Outer Mongolia's mineral extraction sector, Baotou's rare earth processing hub in Inner Mongolia, and residual demand from the Rest of the World (RoW). The model endogenizes core mechanisms including mineral supply curves constrained by infrastructure stock, lagged capital accumulation, Leontief processing production functions, profit-driven investment, and optimal export tax policy maximizing China's discounted social welfare. Three comparative scenarios are calibrated and simulated: a baseline status-quo trade framework, deep Sino-Mongolian resource integration, and a delayed cross-border infrastructure counterfactual.
