陆上风电与森林相遇之处：基于生态分级森林的电力系统规划
Where onshore wind meets forests: electricity system planning with ecologically graded forests
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究针对陆上风电扩张与森林保护的竞争问题，通过对森林按生态价值分级并结合电力系统模型，以挪威为例量化分析，明确了森林保护与风电扩张的权衡，为平衡二者竞争策略提供可转移基础。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
陆上风电预计将在可再生能源增长中占据很大比例，但其扩张越来越多地延伸到森林地区，在那里风力发电和森林保护对同一土地而言是相互竞争的气候策略。净零系统评估通常将森林视为同质。本文按生态价值对森林禁区进行分级，并将其与高分辨率净零电力系统模型相结合，将森林和非森林土地上的陆上风电视为两种不同技术。应用一组生态分级情景于挪威，量化了按生态价值进行森林保护如何重塑系统设计、森林内外陆上风电的平衡以及这些结果对补充能源政策杠杆的稳健性。在成本相同的情况下，系统将森林视为首选的陆上资源，在宽松情景下，森林风电占陆上风电容量的60%至90%。排除森林会使系统成本每放弃一吉瓦森林风电增加高达0.5%，随着森林排除的生态标准收紧，收益递减。将风电引入森林不会损害系统效率，陆上风电削减率基本保持在3%至8%不变。土地利用和技术决策看似独立，实际上可能相互影响，因为太阳能部署会重塑每种风能资源的价值，并决定从发电组合中被取代的资源。通过量化每单位森林陆上风电所放弃的生态价值，本研究明确了能源系统建模中通常隐含的权衡，为平衡保护森林和维持风电扩张这两种相互竞争的气候策略提供了可转移的基础。
英文摘要
Onshore wind is expected to supply much of the growth in renewables, yet its expansion increasingly extends into forests, where wind generation and forest conservation act as competing climate strategies for the same land. Net-zero system assessments typically treat forests homogeneously. Here, we grade forest exclusions by ecological value and couple them with a high-resolution net-zero electricity system model, representing onshore wind on forested and non-forested land as two distinct technologies. Applying a set of ecologically graded scenarios to Norway, we quantify how forest protection by its ecological value reshapes system design, the balance of onshore wind within and outside forests, and the robustness of these outcomes to complementary energy policy levers. At equal cost, the system treats forest as its preferred onshore resource, with forest wind comprising 60 to 90 percent of onshore capacity under permissive scenarios. Excluding forest raises system cost by up to 0.5 percent per GW of foregone forest wind, with diminishing returns as ecological criteria for forest exclusions tighten. Directing wind into forests does not compromise system efficiency, with onshore curtailment remaining largely unchanged at 3 to 8 percent. Land-use and technology decisions that appear independent may, in fact, interact, as solar deployment reshapes the value of each wind resource and determines which is displaced from the generation mix. By quantifying the ecological value forgone per unit of forest onshore wind, this study makes explicit a trade-off that energy system modelling usually leaves implicit, providing a transferable basis for balancing the competing climate strategies of protecting forests and sustaining wind expansion.
