arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv周末暂无论文更新,休息一下吧,周末愉快~~

条件高阶矩风险度量:具有FGM传染的二阶渐近性

The conditional higher moment risk measure: second-order asymptotics with FGM contagion

Haifan Hu, Bingzhen Geng, Jiajun Liu, Shijie Wang

arXiv 2607.16601首次发表:更新:

AI 中文总结

研究FGM相依结构下条件高阶矩相干风险度量的二阶渐近展开,利用极值理论等推导展开式,相比一阶结果能更准确捕捉高阶行为和相依效应,经模拟和实证应用验证了二阶方法的优势。

AI 中文摘要

本文研究了在Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern(FGM)相依结构下条件高阶矩(CoHM)相干风险度量的二阶渐近展开,刻画了主要损失风险与参考风险之间的弱传染。假设主要风险属于Fréchet、Weibull或Gumbel最大吸引域,利用极值理论和二阶正则变化理论系统地推导二阶渐近展开。与现有一阶结果相比,改进后的近似更准确地捕捉高阶尾部行为和相依效应。数值模拟证实二阶渐近性大幅降低近似误差,特别是在极端置信水平下。对保险索赔数据的实证应用进一步说明了二阶方法的实际优越性。

英文摘要

This paper investigates second-order asymptotic expansions for the conditional higher moment (CoHM) coherent risk measure under a Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) dependence structure, capturing a weak contagion between a primary loss risk and a reference risk. Assuming that the primary risk belongs to the Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel maximum domain of attraction, we systematically derive second-order asymptotic expansions using extreme value theory and second-order regular variation theory. Compared with existing first-order results, our refined approximations capture higher-order tail behavior and dependence effects more accurately. Numerical simulations confirm that the second-order asymptotics substantially reduce approximation errors, especially at extreme confidence levels. Empirical applications to insurance claim data further illustrate the practical superiority of the second-order approach.

论文原文

arXiv 摘要页 · PDF 原文 · HTML 原文

↑