地月远距离逆行轨道上航天器碎片的演化
Debris Evolution from Spacecraft Fragmentation in Earth-Moon Distant Retrograde Orbits
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中文总结 AI 辅助
研究地月远距离逆行轨道上航天器碎片演化，用圆形限制性三体问题模型构建参考轨道，美国国家航空航天局标准解体模型模拟碎片生成，双圆限制性四体问题传播碎片，分析多初始位置，量化碎片命运并评估碰撞风险，为地月活动安全指南提供基础。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
随着月球探测的迅速发展和地月空间基础设施的计划扩张，地月空间成为全球航天活动的战略焦点。航天器数量的增加加大了碎片事件风险，如意外爆炸或轨道碰撞，这些是危险轨道碎片的主要来源。鉴于碎片对任务安全和长期轨道可持续性的潜在威胁，研究其在地月系统中的动力学行为势在必行。本研究评估了在30天传播期内，远距离逆行轨道（DRO）上潜在解体事件后碎片云的扩散情况。使用圆形限制性三体问题（CR3BP）模型构建参考轨道，应用美国国家航空航天局标准解体模型在三条不同大小的DRO上多个位置模拟碎片生成。然后使用双圆限制性四体问题（BCR4BP）对这些碎片进行30天的传播。为考虑这些事件的变异性，分析每个轨道上的多个初始位置以捕捉爆炸后的各种场景。我们的分析量化了此窗口内碎片的命运，特别关注逃逸机制以及离开地月引力影响范围或撞击月球表面的碎片百分比。此外，我们引入一种分析方法来评估对在母轨道附近运行的常驻空间物体的潜在碰撞风险。结果为碎片演化提供了见解，并为制定未来地月活动的安全指南奠定了基础。
英文摘要
With the rapid surge in lunar exploration and the planned expansion of cislunar infrastructure, cislunar space has become a strategic focal point for global aerospace activities. This proliferation of spacecraft heightens the risk of fragmentation events, such as unintended explosions or orbital collisions which serve as the primary source of hazardous orbital debris. Given the potential threat these fragments pose to mission safety and long-term orbital sustainability, it is imperative to investigate their dynamical behavior within the Earth-Moon system. This study evaluates the dispersion of debris clouds following potential breakup events on Distant Retrograde Orbits (DROs) over a 30-day propagation period. The Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem (CR3BP) model is used to construct the reference orbits, while the NASA Standard Breakup Model is applied to simulate fragment generation at multiple locations along three DROs of varying sizes. These fragments are then propagated using the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem (BCR4BP) for 30 days. To account for the variability of these events, multiple initial positions along each orbit are analyzed to capture a comprehensive range of post-explosion scenarios. Our analysis quantifies the fate of fragments within this window, specifically focusing on the escape mechanisms and the percentages of debris that either depart from the Earth-Moon gravitational sphere of influence or impact the lunar surface. Furthermore, we introduce an analytical approach to assess the potential collision risk to resident space objects operating within the vicinity of the parent orbit. The results provide insights into debris evolution and offer a foundation for developing safety guidelines for future cislunar activities.
