AI 中文总结
研究人工智能成本降低对发展中经济体劳动力市场的影响，构建含双重劳动力市场等的模型，发现人工智能与正规劳动力替代或互补关系不同，会导致劳动力市场结果迥异，其既可是替代压力源也可是正规部门扩张驱动力。
AI 中文摘要
本文研究人工智能成本降低时会发生什么，重点关注劳动力市场结果，即它是创造正规工作还是将工人推向非正规就业。我们认为答案取决于进口人工智能资本与正规劳动力之间的替代弹性。我们构建了一个具有双重劳动力市场、进口人工智能资本和国家风险的小型开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型，并校准到一个非正规就业普遍存在的经济体。人工智能价格的相同下降会产生截然不同的劳动力市场结果，这取决于人工智能是替代还是补充正规工人。在替代情况下，成本更低的人工智能会削弱正规劳动力需求，并增加非正规部门作为就业缓冲的作用。在互补情况下，它会扩大正规就业并放大产出、工资、投资和资本积累。因此，该模型表明，人工智能根据其与人类劳动力的相互作用方式，既可以成为替代压力的来源，也可以成为正规部门扩张的驱动力。
英文摘要
This paper studies what happens when AI gets cheaper, with emphasis on the labor market outcomes, whether it creates formal jobs or whether it pushes workers into informality. We argue that the answer depends on the elasticity of substitution between imported AI capital and formal labor. We build a small open economy DSGE model with a dual labor market, imported AI capital, and country risk, calibrated to an economy where informality is pervasive. The same decline in AI prices produces sharply different labor-market outcomes depending on whether AI substitutes or complements formal workers. Under substitution, cheaper AI weakens formal labor demand and increases the role of the informal sector as an employment buffer. Under complementarity, it expands formal employment and amplifies output, wages, investment, and capital accumulation. The model therefore shows that AI can become either a source of displacement pressure or a driver of formal-sector expansion, depending on how it interacts with human labor.
