AI 中文总结
研究北冕座T星下次爆发时间，结合历史重现性、轨道相位和吸积状态演化三个约束条件进行分析，得到不同条件下的爆发概率及时间范围，支持条件监测窗口而非唯一日期的观点，为新星爆发研究提供新视角。
AI 中文摘要
北冕座T星（T CrB）是距离最近的共生周期性新星，目前正受到密切监测以期待其下一次爆发。我们结合了对爆发时间的三个约束条件：历史重现性、轨道相位和近期吸积状态演化。以到2026年7月11日未爆发为条件，三个有效的历史时间间隔给出了2026年剩余时间30.2%以及次年56.9%的说明性生存条件概率，这些是经验指标而非物理预测概率。所采用的四个历史爆发阶段并未选择出唯一的点火阶段，而是在φ≈0.44和φ≈0.62附近形成了两对松散的组合，仅用作监测窗口。1946年爆发前的下降难以用纯吸积率下降或标准尘埃消光来解释，可能涉及吸积重组和源依赖的消光。如果2026年再次出现的下降是1946年之前情况的真实类似物，2026年12月左右爆发仍有可能发生。相反，如果2024年后的亮度仍低于其2014 - 2023年的高状态，吸积不足估计给出最早下限接近2029年5月。因此数据支持条件监测窗口而非唯一日期。这些是条件诊断方案而非相互竞争的点预测；最终爆发时间将检验其潜在假设。
英文摘要
T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is the nearest symbiotic recurrent nova and is now intensively monitored for its next eruption. We combine three constraints on the eruption time: historical recurrence, orbital phase, and recent accretion-state evolution. Conditioning on no eruption by 2026 July 11, the three effective historical intervals give illustrative survival-conditioned probabilities of 30.2\% for the rest of 2026 and 56.9\% within the following year; these are empirical indicators, not physical prediction probabilities. The four adopted historical eruption phases do not select a unique ignition phase, but form two loose pairs near $ϕ\simeq0.44$ and $ϕ\simeq0.62$, used here only as monitoring windows. The 1946 pre-eruption dip is difficult to explain by either a pure accretion-rate decline or standard dust extinction, and may have involved both accretion restructuring and source-dependent obscuration. If the renewed 2026 decline is the true pre-1946 analogue, an eruption around 2026 December remains plausible. Conversely, if post-2024 brightness remains below the 2014--2023 high state, an accretion-deficit estimate gives an earliest lower limit near 2029 May. The data therefore support conditional monitoring windows, not a unique date. These are conditional diagnostic scenarios rather than competing point predictions; the eventual eruption epoch will test their underlying assumptions.
Comments7 pages, 1 figure, Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letter (MNRAS Letter)
