AI 中文总结
研究光伏发电在考虑电网与稳定约束时的系统级净能量，通过等效车队基准模型分析，以中欧能源混合为例，得出未稳定可再生能源车队EROI及不同稳定方式下的相关数据，表明稳定是关键能量约束，可靠脱碳需稳定低碳发电及净能量盈余。
AI 中文摘要
光伏发电在安装层面能展现出良好的能源投资回报率（EROI），但在太阳能和风能发电不足时也必须供电。本研究评估了将边界扩展到可靠电力供应时能量平衡如何变化。通过一个包含组件周转、电网、存储、可再生能源超量建设、可调度备用和燃料供应的等效车队基准模型进行分析。以中欧80%风能和20%光伏的混合能源为例，光伏提供核算参考，稳定惩罚通常源于依赖天气的发电。扩展边界很关键，未稳定的可再生能源车队EROI为10.7 - 16.0但无法持续供电，电池负载平衡参考值从1小时的7.1 - 12.5降至24小时的0.7 - 2.3等。结果表明稳定是关键的能量约束，可靠脱碳需要有足够净能量盈余的稳定低碳发电来维持有弹性的工业社会。
英文摘要
Photovoltaics can exhibit favourable installation-level energy return on investment (EROI), yet electricity must also be delivered when solar and wind generation are insufficient. This study evaluates how the energy balance changes when the boundary is expanded to reliable electricity supply. A fleet-equivalent benchmark model includes component turnover, grids, storage, renewable overbuild, dispatchable backup, and fuel supply. It is not a simulation, optimization, or real-system prediction. Photovoltaics provide the accounting reference in an illustrative Central European mix of 80% wind and 20% photovoltaics, while the firming penalties arise more generally from weather-dependent generation. Expanding the boundary is decisive. The unfirmed renewable fleet retains an EROI of 10.7-16.0, but does not provide continuous electricity. Battery load-balancing references decline from 7.1-12.5 for 1h to 0.7-2.3 for 24h. Seasonal hydrogen yields 3.4-7.7; adding a 1h battery reduces the combined range to 2.9-6.8. Pipeline-gas and LNG backup yield only 1.2-2.6 and 1.0-2.2. The lifecycle-carbon advantage narrows accordingly. Under present industrial supply chains, GWP$_{100}$ intensities rise from 38-75 gCO$_2$eq/kWh without firming to 80-289 gCO$_2$eq/kWh for hydrogen and battery-hydrogen firming, and 121-327 gCO$_2$eq/kWh for gas backup. These favourable benchmarks set orientation, site, curtailment, and delivery factors to unity; real deployment lowers EROI and raises emissions. The results identify firming as a critical energetic constraint: reliable decarbonization requires firm low-carbon generation with sufficient net-energy surplus to sustain a resilient industrial society.
Comments74 pages, 21 Tables
