重新评估太阳辐照度重建：无证据表明存在长期大趋势
Re-evaluating solar irradiance reconstructions: No evidence for large secular trends
AI总结：
重新评估CHRONOS和PEA24模型中太阳辐照度重建的长期趋势，利用地磁数据等更新模型，发现原始模型高估了变化幅度，更新后表明自蒙德极小期以来TSI长期增加适度，与多数模型一致。
AI中文摘要：
当前大多数辐照度重建表明，在1700年至1986年活动极小期之间，总太阳辐照度（TSI）仅有适度的长期增加（<1 Wm⁻²）。然而，CHRONOS和Penza等人（2024；PEA24）的两个模型表明变化幅度大得多，为2.1 - 5.9 Wm⁻²。这两个模型虽架构不同，但都使用宇宙成因同位素记录和中子监测器数据来描述长期辐照度变化。不过，对宇宙成因同位素的调制势重建与中子监测器数据进行交叉校准仍高度不确定。我们重新评估CHRONOS和PEA24模型中大幅长期趋势的起源和幅度。利用基于地磁数据和中子监测器测量的最新日球层调制势和开放太阳通量重建来更新这两个模型，使重建的长期成分能一致地扩展到卫星时代，并将所得TSI重建与直接TSI测量进行比较。我们发现原始的CHRONOS和PEA24重建大幅高估了辐照度的长期变化。受直接TSI测量约束时，CHRONOS在1700年至1986年极小期之间TSI增加约0.1 - 0.44 Wm⁻²，而PEA24约为0.2 - 0.25 Wm⁻²。我们的分析表明，先前推断的大幅长期趋势主要源于宇宙成因同位素和中子监测器记录的不当关联，以及所采用平滑方法的问题。此处给出的更新重建表明，自蒙德极小期以来TSI的长期增加相对适度，可能低于1 Wm⁻²，与当前大多数辐照度模型一致。
英文摘要：
Most current irradiance reconstructions suggest only a modest secular increase in TSI between the 1700 and 1986 activity minima ($<1$ Wm$^{-2}$). However, 2 models, the CHRONOS and Penza et al. (2024; PEA24) models, suggest substantially larger changes of 2.1-5.9 Wm$^{-2}$. Although the two models differ in their architecture, both use cosmogenic isotope records combined with neutron monitor data to describe the long-term irradiance variability. However, cross-calibrating modulation potential reconstructions from cosmogenic isotopes against neutron monitor data remains highly uncertain. We reassess the origin and the magnitude of the large secular trends in the CHRONOS and PEA24 models. We update the CHRONOS and PEA24 models using recent heliospheric modulation potential and open solar flux reconstructions based on geomagnetic data and neutron monitor measurements, which provide a more reliable connection between cosmogenic isotope and neutron monitor records. These allow the secular component of the reconstructions to be extended consistently to the satellite era and compare the resulting TSI reconstructions with direct TSI measurements. We find that the original CHRONOS and PEA24 reconstructions substantially overestimated the secular variability in irradiance. When constrained by direct TSI measurements, CHRONOS yields a TSI increase of about 0.1-0.44 Wm$^{-2}$ between the 1700 and 1986 minima, while PEA24 returns about 0.2-0.25 Wm$^{-2}$. Our analysis indicates that the previously inferred large secular trends arose primarily from improper linking cosmogenic isotope and neutron monitor records, together with issues in the adopted smoothing approach. The updated reconstructions presented here point toward a relatively modest secular increase in TSI since the Maunder Minimum, likely below 1 Wm$^{-2}$, consistent with the majority of current irradiance models.
