AI 中文总结
研究不确定未来事件预测评估，指出事件发生后评估预测的方法若考虑预测者时间偏好会致不诚实预测，通过实证发现预测者受激励调整预测，高估事件早期发生概率，强调激励兼容地奖励此类预测有挑战。
AI 中文摘要
我们研究了对不确定未来事件（如火山爆发、战争爆发或衰退开始）的时间和发生的预测评估。理论上表明，一种典型方法（事件发生后评估预测）如果预测者更看重即时利益而贴现未来奖励，会激励不诚实预测。对预测比赛数据的实证应用发现有力证据表明预测者会因这些激励调整预测，意味着此类事件现有预测可能系统性高估早期发生概率。我们得出结论，以激励兼容方式奖励此类预测具有内在挑战性。
英文摘要
We study the evaluation of forecasts regarding the timing and occurrence of uncertain future events, such as volcanic eruptions, the start of a war or the beginning of a recession. We show theoretically that a typical approach -- evaluating the forecasts after the event occurred -- incentivizes dishonest predictions if forecasters discount future rewards in favor of more immediate benefits. An empirical application to forecasting tournament data finds strong empirical evidence that forecasters adjust predictions in response to these incentives, implying that existing forecasts of such events are likely systematically overstating the probability of early occurrence. We conclude that rewarding such forecasts in an incentive-compatible way is inherently challenging.
