AI 中文总结
研究非洲城市间网络中冲突、流动性和碎片化问题，结合多源数据，用霍克斯式自激记忆核估计冲突强度并模拟流动，通过实证检验和模拟揭示道路冲突对区域一体化的威胁及相关因素造成的走廊脆弱性。
AI 中文摘要
道路使区域一体化成为可能，但也集中了风险。当暴力蔓延到承载区域流动的走廊时，后果可能会超出受攻击地点。我们通过结合城市间道路数据、地理参考冲突事件和双边移民流动来研究非洲的这一问题。利用霍克斯式自激记忆核，我们估计了2019年至2022年道路附近的累积冲突强度，并沿着道路网络对城市间的模拟流动进行了路由。作为对这些模拟走廊流动的实证检验，我们表明，由累积冲突较高的路线连接的国家对双边移民较少。这种关联在关于空间衰减的替代假设下仍然为负，并且对于跨越区域的路径最强，这与走廊威慑渠道一致，而不仅仅是暴力地点的流离失所。然后，我们使用级联和渗流模拟来研究局部干扰如何通过道路网络传播。大多数模拟干扰隔离的人口相对较少，但18.6%的干扰隔离了超过100万人，最大的隔离了1330万人。按冲突强度顺序拆除道路会揭示一个临界点，此时巨型连通分量从网络的85%降至39%。我们的结果确定了暴力最威胁区域一体化的道路，并展示了过去的冲突、流动性和网络结构如何结合起来造成持续的走廊脆弱性。
英文摘要
Roads make regional integration possible, but they also concentrate risk. When violence reaches a corridor that carries regional movement, the consequences can extend beyond the attacked place. We study this problem in Africa by combining interurban road data, georeferenced conflict events, and bilateral migration flows. Using a Hawkes-style self-exciting memory kernel, we estimate accumulated conflict intensity near roads from 2019 to 2022, and we route modelled movement between cities along the road network. As an empirical check on these modelled corridor flows, we show that country pairs connected by routes with higher accumulated conflict have lower bilateral migration. The association remains negative across alternative assumptions about spatial decay and is strongest for paths that cross regions, consistent with a corridor-deterrence channel rather than only displacement from violent places. We then use cascade and percolation simulations to examine how local disruptions propagate through the road network. Most simulated disruptions isolate relatively small populations, but 18.6% isolate more than one million people, and the largest isolates 13.3 million. Removing roads in order of conflict intensity reveals a tipping point, at which the giant connected component falls from 85% to 39% of the network. Our results identify the roads where violence most threatens regional integration and show how past conflict, mobility, and network structure combine to create persistent corridor vulnerability.
