AI 中文总结
研究能源转型等结构变化与经济转型动态评估问题，通过线性响应理论扩展交叉影响平衡（CIB），得出四个分析对象，应用于能源转型交叉影响矩阵得出相关结果，可转移至相关领域。
AI 中文摘要
对结构变化和经济转型动态的评估，如能源转型中的评估，依赖于内部一致的定性情景，这些情景规定了政策环境、技术组合、治理安排和需求条件。交叉影响平衡（CIB）分析将此类社会技术情景作为专家引发的相互依存网络的定点吸引子得出，为评估模型提供结构输入。然而，标准CIB仅提供这种均衡目录，留下四个结构问题未解答。本文通过线性响应理论扩展CIB，利用CIB漂移矩阵和列昂惕夫投入产出技术矩阵之间的结构同构。以封闭形式得出四个分析对象：I型交叉影响乘数、扰动预算、脉冲响应函数和单位脉冲冲击轮廓。该框架应用于能源转型交叉影响矩阵，得出五个结构均衡的所有四个对象，并可转移到成对影响得分编码结构相互依存关系的任何领域。
英文摘要
Assessments of structural change and economic transition dynamics, such as those arising in the energy transition, depend on internally consistent qualitative scenarios specifying the policy environment, technology mix, governance arrangements, and demand conditions. Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis derives such socio-technical scenarios as fixed-point attractors of an expert-elicited interdependency network, supplying structural inputs upon which assessment models (including energy system optimisation, agent-based, and general equilibrium frameworks) can draw. Standard CIB, however, delivers only this equilibrium catalogue, leaving four structural questions unanswered: how much network-weighted effort a given transition requires; which components are the true system-wide levers once indirect influence chains are counted; in what sequence the system adjusts; and how the network at a given attractor responds to an external shock. This paper extends CIB through Linear Response Theory, exploiting a structural isomorphism between the CIB drift matrix and the Leontief input-output technology matrix. Four analytical objects are derived in closed form: the Type I cross-impact multiplier, which aggregates all direct and indirect influence chains; the perturbation budget, a network-weighted and directionally asymmetric measure of transition effort; the impulse response function, which traces descriptor adjustment sequences and feedback-induced overshoots; and the unit-impulse shock profile, which characterises attractor-specific network sensitivity and yields a direct measure of structural resilience and susceptibility. The framework is applied empirically to an energy-transition cross-impact matrix, yielding all four objects for five structural equilibria, and transfers to any domain in which pairwise influence scores encode structural interdependencies.
